Score Projection and Risk Analysis W3

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, today I want to start of with some important information about the terminology of the post. I have changed it up a little bit to make the numbers easier to navigate and understand. With that please read the description of the Score Projection and Risk Analysis even if you have read it before. I will define the words Probability and Risk in a better way. Let’s dig in!

Score Projection: The Score Projection this year have added to the mathematical formula, Home/Away stats, above 0.500/below 0.500, AFC/NFC and opponents play trends. This means that the accuracy will increase from last year for the Weekly Projections. The Yearly Projections use a different formula that I have previously discussed.

Risk Analysis: I have a new formula for calculating the probability and risk which makes them more accurate than last year. It is based on Poisson Distribution and is Cumulative. Example: The Risk for Player X to score 10 fantasy points is 15 % and that means that the chance of scoring 10 FTPs or under 10 FTPs is 15 %. Consequently that means that Player X has a 85% Probability of scoring above 10 FTPs (10.1 to infinity).

These are the six players I have chosen to focus on for Week 3. The reason for this is that they are the two highest players with the highest Projection for Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

Comparing the two Quarterbacks Stafford has the highest Projection, the lower Risk and consequently the higher Probability of outscoring the Projection. I love Stafford as my Quarterback for Week 3 against the Falcons in Detroit. I think he has a great opportunity to be the highest scoring Quarterback this week!

Ajayi is a great Running Back against the Jets in Week 3. His Probability and Risk have not caught up to him only playing one game so take it with a pinch of salt but his Projection is still rock solid.

Gordon has started the season way better than I would have expected I am sad to say. But when the yearly Projections are wrong the Weekly one adjusts and I Project him to have a great day against the Chiefs in Los Angeles.

Antonio Brown is a no-brainer each week so I won’t go too much into him. I just needed to have him on the list to make it two-two-two.

DeAndre Hopkins numbers are very interesting. He is the Wide Receiver with the most amount of Targets in the entire league and when you take Targets that got taken away due to penalties he would have had 8 more (29 now). However, he is an extremely Risky pick. If you are playing a Seasonal or Dynasty league he is a must start but in Daily you might want to think long and hard about spending on him.