Quarterback Projections – 2016

I thought I should start of by saying that I have not looked at all the starting quarterbacks for this season so the rankings will change when they get done. I will list the rankings with the appropriate numbers to back it up and then discuss the numbers more in depth below. The rankings does not include where they are going to be picked, they are based on what the QB should perform looking at his previous production with a statistical eye. Let’s dig in!

The QB’s I have been looking at this week are the following, starting with my number 1.

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Andrew Luck
  3. Cam Newton
  4. Carson Palmer
  5. Aaron Rodgers
  6. Russell Wilson
  7. Matthew Stafford, Rivers and Stafford has the same number, Stafford won on Alpabetical order.
  8.  Philip Rivers
  9. Tom Brady
  10. Tony Romo

Now let me explain why I have these rankings and what they mean.

If you are looking at a quarterback that you don’t want to affect the performance of your team too much, this is one of the most optimal rankings you can have. If you only look at these 10 of course. Why is it optimal? let us take Drew Brees as an example, seeing as I have him number 1. If you take all of Drew’s games in the last three years and look at his fantasy football points average out of all the game’s he lands on 25.5 FPts/g. When you add in his standard deviation to that number his high projections lands at 33.6 FPts/g and his low at 17.3. That 17.3 his the highest out of all the 10 QB’s I have looked at. If I would have looked at all the QB’s average FPts/g from all their season’s instead of each game Drew would have finished much lower, but he would be affected by seasons over 10 years ago, I want to know more recent numbers this time around. I will post rankings based on total numbers as well, in three weeks time.

Next week I will post my next 10 based on the same numbers, and I will discuss Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. Winston in particular is very interesting and might be my number 1 pick for this years fantasy draft.

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSDimageedit_1_9253545623


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