Wide Receiver Projections part:1 – 2016

In contrast to the last two posts regarding QB ceilings, I have now gone back and looked at the floors for Wide Receivers. These floor numbers represent the WR in question’s FFP/G average minus his Standard Deviation for the last three years (so no rookies).

The Standard Deviation (SD) represent the variation in a set of data. For instance, a low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be close to the mean, and a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a wider range.

This will lead to a WR with a high SD will have more unpredictable numbers while a WR with a low SD will have more predictable.

Today I will look at the Wide Receivers I have ranked between 40 and 21 based on their floors. Picking a wide receiver with the highest floor works best when your tactic is to have have stability. Looking at ceilings is preferable when picking in later rounds for upside guys. Let’s dig in!

40. Terrance Williams – 1.8
39. Doug Baldwin – 1.8
38. Amari Cooper – 1.9 (Decided to keep 2nd year WR in this ranking)
37. Vincet Jackson – 2
36. Jordan Matthews – 2
35. Kendall Wright – 2.1
34. Michael Crabtree – 2.3
33. Torrey Smith – 2.3
32. Steve Smith – 2.3
31. John Brown – 2.4
30. Golden Tate – 2.4
29. Larry Fitzgerald – 2.4
28. DeAndre Hopkins – 2.4
27. Keenan Allen – 2.6
26. Sammy Watkins – 2.6
25. Devante Parker – 2.9
24. Willie Snead – 3
23. Jarvis Landry – 3
22. Brandin Cooks – 3
21. DeSean Jackson – 3

To talk a little bit about the numbers. Take Hopkins as an example. His floor number is 2.4 each game, that is the lowest I expect him to have. So I would use these numbers to find my WR1 and potentially WR2 but never use the floor to secure my third or forth guy. I want my WR1 to be a stable guy that I can count on even when he’s bad. Next Wednesday and Friday the posts will focus on the ceilings of the WR so you can pick guys with higher upside.

But continuing with Hopkins as the example, his ceiling number is 17. That will have him as the 28th best floor guy and 20th best ceiling. That in my mind is not WR1. I would consider DeSean Jackson over Hopkins based on these two numbers combinde, Jackson 21st floor and 19th in ceiling. But as I have said before, these are numbers that can help you settle ties, not decided every move you do!

Monday’s post will feature the top 20 WRs based on floor number.

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSDimageedit_1_9253545623

 

 


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