Sometimes it feels like everyone has the same guys at the top just to have them there, but looking at the numbers at least the top 3 are there for a reason. Some other Wide Receivers might be rated a little bit to low based on outside factors and not their true production! My top three will not surprise anyone, but I have a few that I think will at least make you think before picking someone in rounds 2-4.
Let’s go over Standard Deviation (SD) one more time before the players. The numbers are based on the their Average-SD to find their floor production.
SD represent the variation in a set of data. For instance, a low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be close to the mean, and a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a wider range.
This will lead to a WR with a high SD will have more unpredictable numbers while a WR with a low SD will have more predictable. Let’s dig in!
- Odell Beckham Jr – 7.4 (Holy S@*t)
- Antonio Brown – 6.5
- Julio Jones – 6.5
- Brandon Marshall – 5.8 (This is with Jay Cutler and Fitzmagic)
- Jordy Nelson – 5.1 (Last season not accounted for)
- Demaryius Thomas – 5
- A.J. Green – 4.6
- Alshon Jeffery – 4.6
- Dez Bryant – 4.3
- Julian Edelman – 4.1
- Mike Evans – 4
- Randall Cobb – 3.9
- Kelvin Benjamin – 3.9
- Allen Robinson – 3.8
- Eric Decker – 3.6
- Jeremy Maclin – 3.3
- Emmanuel Sanders – 3.3
Only have top 17 cause did not want to split DeSean Jackson, Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry and Willie Snead which all had 3, so put them in last post with 21-40.
Most analysts seem to have Antonio Brown as the number one guy this year and I do not agree. Brown is an incredible football player but in Fantasy, I will rank Odell Beckham higher. His floor number is way above everyone else even with Brown and Jones above the third tier. I have not done a top 20 of my favorite running backs yet but by these numbers, if you have a top pick in a draft, I would highly suggest taking of of the top 3 receivers. Brandon Marshall’s ADP is #23 so with him as my 4th best WR I might just wait if I have a pick around 25-30 to see if he’s still there. I am not really afraid for the QB situation in New York, I think he can post big numbers with anyone.
Wednesday’s post will focus on the ceiling numbers of the first block of Wide Receivers and on Friday the top 20 for Wide Receiver ceilings will go up.
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD