Wide Receiver Projections Part:3 Top 50 – 2016

Last 2 projections we have looked at wide receiver floor numbers. What about their ceilings? This post will focus on my 26-50 best Wide Receivers based on their ceilings.

The numbers are based on their FFP/G average over their last 3 years + standard deviation. So this number represent what I will most likely see as the ceiling per game for these players, not what I think they will perform each week.

What can you take away when looking at these numbers? A wide receiver with a high ceiling but a lower floor might be better to take in later rounds to have as a “gotta win this game, let’s take a swing on this guy” guy. Let’s dig in!

50. Markus Wheaton – 10.2
49. Dorial Green-Beckham – 10.5
48. Travis Benjamin – 10.6
47. Kamar Aiken – 10.7
46. Donte Moncrief 11.9
45. Mike Wallace – 12.4
44. Michael Crabtree – 12.4
43. Kendall Wright -12.6
42. Willie Snead – 12.6
41.  John Brown – 12.7
40. Terrance Williams – 13
39. Tavon Austin – 13.2
38. Stefon Diggs – 13.2
37. Tyler Lockett – 13.4
36. Jarvis Landry – 13.4
35. Torrey Smith – 13.7
34. Golden Tate – 13.9
33. Devante Parker – 13.9
32. Marvin Jones – 14.6
31. Michael Floyd – 14.6
30. Vincent Jackson – 14.6
29. Doug Baldwin – 15.1
28. Steve Smith Sr – 15.2
27. Allen Hurns – 15.7
26. Jordan Matthews – 15.7

There are some clear jumps between players. Looking at the leaps between Kamar Aiken and Donte Moncrief and even up to Mike Wallace the draft pick will be easy when you are deciding who to draft for upside. Then again we have never seen Travis Benjamin with a good QB so you always got that upside, but just by the numbers I would not draft him. Where I see the most value is Moncrief to Aiken/Wallace, Parker to Jones, and Jackson to Baldwin. We say what Doug Baldwin could do in games last year, he has single game potential.

Drafting for upside with numbers can be a good strategy but I would also suggest drafting something even more unknown in later rounds, you never know when you find a new David Johnson!

On Friday I’ll post the top 25 Wide Receivers based on ceilings, some positions will change from the floor rankings and some will stay the same. When I’m creating my draft board I will mix and match guys from each list and try to find value in later rounds, at the top everyone seems to agree more than ever this year.

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSDimageedit_1_9253545623


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