Hi, I should start with saying that I am trying out a new layout for the statistics in this post. If you have read any of my previous post and have any preference in layout please let me know in the comments.
As I do with every position I will start the running back rankings with the floor numbers. I have also added their ADP for this upcoming season. My best friend pointed out to me that it would be beneficial to see their value next to my rankings so here they are!
The Floor numbers are as always based on the players average FFP/G-the standard deviation over the last 3 years. A player that gets injured a lot can still be high on the ranking since he might perform really well in the games he plays. Let’s dig in!
|First Name||Last Name||Floor Number||ADP|
The trend this year with the pro analysts seems to be going wide receivers in the earlier rounds so I am a little surprised seeing Doug Martin with an ADP of 9.3. I have him as my #21 and will not draft him in the second round and even less likely in the first.
Everyone believes that David Johnson is a superstar, I tend to agree, but seeing his numbers concerns me. I know he wasn’t the started for the entire year last year, but can he be it this year? He was great even as a non started but I’m not sure we will see the same insane touchdown production this year. What if Ellington and C. Johnson stay healthy, will D. Johnson see less work? I will wait and see with this Cardinals back-field, I am not as convinced as everyone else…
On the other hand, I think my numbers lie about Lamar Miller. Texans running backs tend to do pretty well, and now he will finally be a featured back. I don’t see Alfred Blue or Chris Polk taking reps from Miller. His adp suggests everyone agrees on this however and 6.5 is a little bit to high for my taste. Early to mid second round, yes, god yes, but in the first round I’m going insane upside (Zeke Elliot) or safety (OBJ).
My rankings are only based on numbers and seeing West on #38 makes me happy! He is an excellent handcuff for Jamaal Charles and still can provide numbers for a top 40 guy. Andy Reid tends to feature one back and if Charles is that guy I’m happy but if something happens I believe West still can give me an opportunity to win.
Almost the same can be said for Martin and Sims. That they fall just next to each other in production will make me stay away from the entire Bucs back-field. I think the “Dougernaut” will be the featured back, but what happens if Sims starts stealing carries and catches?
Depending on your draft strategy this year, I believe that the most value from running backs will come from drafting early. The wide-receiver hype will have people scrambling for the high end guys in first three rounds and you can pick up outstanding value at the running back position while drafting average-good wide outs in rounds 4-6 and later rounds.
Will you zig when everyone zag and pick running backs early or will you try to get the likes of OBJ and Mike Evans in rounds 1 and 2? Let me know in the comments, like and subscribe to the blog and follow on twitter for more fantasy statistics.
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD