Top 20 Running Backs Based on Floors – 2016

After last week’s disappointing Tight End rankings we finally have a shake-up! I will discuss that more after the rankings but I am very excited about my top 20 today.

As a reminder, these are floor numbers, based on the last three years. I expect to get FFP equal or higher to the floor number on a weekly basis, never lower than that. The calculation is as always in these rankings Average-Standard Deviation= Floor Number. Let’s dig in!

First Name Last Name Floor Number ADP
1 Matt Forte 8.2 15.2
2 Le’Veon Bell 8.1 4.7
3 DeMarco Murray 7.5 18.8
4 Jamaal Charles 7.4 7.5
5 LeSean McCoy 7.1 12.2
6 Dion Lewis 6.8 21.8
7 Todd Gurley 6.7 1.3
8 Arian Foster 6.5 35.8
9 Adrian Peterson 6.4 2.3
10 T.J. Yeldon 5.5 33.2
11 Eddie Lacy 5.1 9.8
12 Giovani Bernard 4.4 30.2
13 Ryan Mathews 4.2 21.8
14 Frank Gore 4.2 27.4
15 Karlos Williams 4 39.2
16 Jonathan Stewart 4 20
17 Melvin Gordon 4 27.2
18 Mark Ingram 3.8 10.8
19 Jeremy Hill 3.7 19.5
20 Alfred Morris 3.5 50.2

When I saw these numbers I was shocked! Don’t get me wrong I love Matt Forte but number 1, and his ADP is 15.2, what is going on!? I will target Forte in all my leagues except the dynasty one. If he goes 15.2 I can probably get him early second while picking a more highly contested player in the first round and be the happiest guy in the draft.

Another player I’m really excited about is Arian Foster. I mean how can you not be excited, Adam Gase, Jay Ajayai is falling in favor and it is Arian freaking Foster, 8 on my ranking with 35.8 in ADP. I think after seeing my own rankings I will reevaluate my draft strategy a lot before my next draft!

Just want to point out that having Adrian Peterson as the 9th highest running back is bugging me a lot but I in no way alter these numbers, the statistics speak for themselves  and when we look at ceilings, I suspect he will be ranked higher.

My first draft this year landed me both Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy in rounds 2 and 3 and even though their status is a little unclear I’m very happy. I may have handcuffed them as well just in case. But I see great value in getting my number 4 and 5 guy in those rounds. To be honest, that draft felt a little strange when Thomas Rawls and Russel Wilson went as 10 and 11, Seahawks fan much?

Dion Lewis is coming of a pretty nasty injury and with his ADP I think people are reaching a little bit. We have seen a great season, not a full one but a great one, and then he got injured. I am much more comfortable with Charles seeing he has done this for a long time and has gone through injuries before.

On Wednesday and Friday I’ll look at the ceilings for running backs. After that I’ll look at Kickers and DSTs next week. When all positions has been covered well start figuring out optimal draft orders.

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSDimageedit_1_9253545623


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