Running Backs 40-21 – 2016

Today’s rankings will see some shake ups from the floor rankings. A lot of players have moved around which indicates for most of the players, volatile production. A player I will focus on today will Giovani Bernard that have drop a ton of spots from the floor rankings where he was in the top 20.

A quick recap of how the rankings are done before we dig deeper. The Ceiling number is calculated from the running backs performance over the last 3 seasons in the case he has not played three seasons the number is from his second and or first year. The players average FFP/G + Standard Deviation = Ceiling Number.

I recently added ADP to the rankings to give some more information on how others have the players ranked. The ADP is only for running backs so Andre Ellington who’s #40 on my rankings and ADP 72.5 means he’s ranked as the 72.5th running back not 72.5th player overall. Let’s dig in!

First Name Last Name Ceiling Number ADP
21 Charcandrick West 17.0 51
22 Mark Ingram 16.8 10.8
23 Doug Martin 16.8 9.3
24 Frank Gore 16.4 27.4
25 Ahmad Bradshaw 16.4  –
26 Justin Forsett 16.4 31.6
27 Rashad Jennings 16.3 36.6
28 Reggie Bush 16.3  –
29 Chris Johnson 15.9 47.2
30 Danny Woodhead 15.9 34.4
31 Jeremy Langford 15.9 22
32 Matt Jones 15.9 22.7
33 Joique Bell 15.8  –
34 Jonathan Stewart 15.6 20
35 Ryan Mathews 15.4 21.8
36 Chris Ivory 15.3 29.7
37 Spencer Ware 15.3 63.3
38 Giovani Bernard 15.1 30.2
39 Latavius Murray 14.9 16.8
40 Andre Ellington 14.7 72.5

Getting back to Giovani Bernard, he was my 12th guy in the floor rankings is all the way down at 38 in the ceiling. He is not a guy that has fluctuating scoring, he stays steady all year round with not much happening. Seeing as his ADP is 30.2 I would love to have him in my team. He will score a decent amount of points for a not to high price and I can be fairly certain he will score alright on a weekly basis and not 0.2 one week and 25 the next. I value reliability in my starters, then I can stream flex players or have high upside in bad match ups.

Reggie Bush’s – ADP means he is most likely undrafted in most drafts. I love that I the numbers say he’s my number 28 guy, if something happens to LeSean McCoy Bush can most likely take the reins in that offense and be a good handcuff.

West is my 21st player, he was 38 when looking at floor numbers, he is the opposite of Giovani Bernard but a perfect guy if Charles is not himself this year or gets injured again.

Ryan Mathews is a guy I will keep my eyes at, he was 13th in the floor rankings and 35 here with a not too high ADP. Seeing as DeMarco Murray no longer is with the Eagles and that Sproles is not getting any younger Mathews might actually have his breakout this year, if he can stay healthy. But either way if he can perform the way his numbers suggests he already have I am all for it.

It will be interesting to see the top 20 on Friday to see how the top guys have moved around. I suspect we will see some differences but not too many. I am currently working on a way to calculate the best draft based on Average Fantasy Points Per Season and the cost at drafting them. That will be the theme when the rankings are done.

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSDimageedit_1_9253545623


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