After this top 20 it’s only the kickers and DSTs left before we get to the good stuff. The optimal pick orders, how much is every player worth depending on position and in regards to their ADP and production.
Doing the statistics for the running backs have been the most entertaining out of all position groups so far, they change a lot from floors to ceilings and have produced some interesting results. Guys that I thought would be higher in the floor rankings did not have the numbers to support it but instead had incredible ceilings.
A quick recap of how the rankings are done before we dig deeper. The Ceiling number is calculated from the running backs performance over the last 3 seasons in the case he has not played three seasons the number is from his second and or first year. The players average FFP/G + Standard Deviation = Ceiling Number. Let’s dig in!
Tim Hightower’s ADP puts him in my focus immediately! His incredible ceiling number in contrast to the ADP is enticing. I would say that the numbers are based on the last three years when two of the last seasons he only played five and six games and before that his production was so and so. He is still someone I would keep my eye open for during preseason to see how he looks.Todd Gurley was the #7 guy in the floor rankings and #5 in ceiling. Paying a first round pick for someone who is going to have to carry an entire offense by himself again seems risky to me. I had him on one of my team last year but that was a later round pick and I was fairly certain he would produce when nobody in the league was prepared. Now everyone knows what he can do and the Rams have a rookie QB, his value vs. the cost is too damn high.I believe and my numbers suggests that Arian Foster is undervalued. Sure he comes back from an injury but he was good in the games he played after his last injury. Taking a flyer on Foster is something I most deferentially will do in one year leagues.DeAngelo Williams ADP will surely rise in the next weeks now with Bell being suspended and we all know what he can do when he is the #1 in Pittsburgh. It is interesting to see the difference in ADP between Lamar Miller and DeAngelo Williams. Similar ceiling in games but people are incredibly high on Miller without know if he can be a #1 guy for a team. As I wrote in an earlier post, I believe in Miller but you might find value in looking to Williams over him.Matt Forte goes down from his #1 spot on the floor rankings to a #6 spot in ceilings. That does not worry me. If 14 running backs are picked in front of him I can get two wide receivers and maybe one running back before I even have to pick him, if it is a 10 team league. I have not decided on Forte the CSD Fantasy Dynasty league but I do not see myself picking him there.Like, comment and Retweet below, everything is appreciated!The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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