This has been the most exiting work I have done for this site! I am really pumped about this post and I might even do a week series for 12, 14 team leagues and best pick draft position for rounds 1-3 but have not decided yet. Keep an eye out this weekend and next week for that, and if you would like to get a reminder on your email signup is to the right.
And now, some ground rules for this list.
Number 1, No Quarterbacks, they change the game too much to do a list with them, they will dominate ever round from the 3rd and onward if I include them.
Number 2, This is based on Floor numbers, quick refresher, Floor Number = Average FFP/G over the last 3 years – Standard Deviation.
Number 3, Their rounds is based on their ADP which is from the average ADP from the largest sites ESPN, CBS, FFC, NFL, FANTRAX and DW. Hate that sentence but anyway.
Remember this is not me telling you were to draft anyone, this is me telling you who has the highest floor in any given round depending on where they are usually drafted. You do not have to pick Melvin Gordon in the 7th round because you already have 4 running backs but you should now the numbers when you are making your decisions. Let’s dig in!
|Highest Floor Per Round 10 Team League|
|Round 1||Le’Veon Bell*||8.1|
|Round 2||Jamaal Charles||7.4|
|Round 3||LeSean McCoy||7.1|
|Round 4||Matt Forte||8.2|
|Round 5||DeMarco Murray||7.5|
|Round 6||Dion Lewis*||6.8|
|Round 7||Melvin Gordon||4.0|
|Round 8||Giovani Bernard||4.4|
|Round 9||Arian Foster**||6.5|
|Round 10||Julius Thomas||3.2|
|Round 11||Jimmy Graham**||2.9|
|Round 12||Stephen Gostkowski||5.6|
|Round 13||Steven Hauschka||5.1|
|Round 14||Graham Gano||4.6|
|Round 15||Justin Tucker||4.1|
**Will get injured
I am starting to see a pattern in my draft strategy outside of round 1. In my drafts I have focused on Matt Forte, Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster, Julius Thomas and Steven Hauschka. I know I have picked Charles and McCoy, Gordon, Murray and Graham to but they kinda fell in my lap and I could not resist.
The highest floor per round is very running back heavy which does not surprise me at all, I hope I have the time to look at the ceiling rankings this weekend to do a comparison, otherwise I will sneak it in sometime next week.
Later rounds are pretty much dominated by old school powerhouses as Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. I am no stranger to picking them for my teams and I don’t see round 10 and 11 as a dangerous place to pick them. Luckily I have been able to pick them even later, but not everyone will have that luxury. If Graham is 2015 Graham I lost my last pick in the draft and if not I might have gotten a steal.
I had a wonderful twitter conversation with a gentleman yesterday who Hated my Arian Foster pick for my team, even though I had Jay Ajayi as handcuff. Does everyone feel this way? I have no problem with Foster staying healthy and being himself for 4-5 weeks and then breaking, I still have the next best (or will Kenyan Drake steal the show and I am screwed?) running back on that team. Let me know what you think on twitter @qalled or in the comments.
Dion Lewis is still in round six even though he probably will miss 8-10 weeks according to latest updates. I expect him to plummet after that news so please don’t draft him in round six! I am not saying this to convince people to let him slide so I can take him, be sure of that!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD