This post will be a little different from the last week’s posts. It will focus on what stats has the most impact on running back production. It is sort of a test post to see if it is worth doing this with other variables in the future. I have taken all the numbers from the running backs I have in my rankings and measured their Attempts in correlation with Touchdowns, Yards and Fantasy Football Points Per Season. Let’s dig in!
When measuring correlation, the coefficient r stands is the strength and direction of a linear relationship between the two variables you measure. r will be between +1 and -1 depending on the correlation.
–1. A perfect negative linear correlation
–0.70. A strong negative linear correlation
–0.50. A moderate negative correlation
–0.30. A weak negative linear correlation
0. No linear correlation
+0.30. A weak positive linear correlation
+0.50. A moderate positive correlation
+0.70. A strong positive linear correlation
+1. A perfect positive linear correlation
This is a scatter plot that shows hows how Attempts correlate with Yards per season. It is easy to see that the more Attempts a running back has the more likely it is that he will have more yards.
I did these three measurements and it is easy to see that there is almost a +1 linear correlation between Attempts and Yards and the FPTs/Season while Attempts and Touchdowns not have the same strong correlation.
This is not rocket science but it is nice to get the numbers down. I will try to find more out the box numbers in the future, for instance I will look into the correlation between college production and NFL production, physical measurements and NFL production and hopefully we can find some numbers that can provide us with an edge in our Fantasy Leagues.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD