New Friday, new post! First I would like to wish everyone a great Labor Day weekend, I hope you will be relaxing and enjoying yourselves with tons of food and Fantasy Drafts!
I decided to look at the wide receiver correlations to compare with the running backs. This will be another shorter post with focus on the important stats for wide receivers. But, and I am working on some really fun numbers for wide receivers that will be posted next week or the week after that! A tease is that I have gone back several years and found stats from all combine receivers and will measure that vs. their success in the league to look for trends. Let’s dig in!
I will start off with a little out of the box correlation regarding ADP and FPT/Season. As you can see in the scatter plot below, it is a negative correlation, but that is not really brain surgery is it? On the Y-axis we have the average ADP of wide receivers and on the X-axis the FPT/Season. Some out-liers but a pretty OK correlation of -0.703
The main segment of this post will put Targets vs. Receptions against each other. What does really impact a wide receivers production more, the number of Targets or number of Receptions? A quick recap of what correlation measures. When measuring correlation, the coefficient r stands for the strength and direction of a linear relationship between the two variables you measure. r will be between +1 and -1 depending on the correlation.
When analyzing these two against each other we can take with us that Targets have a greater impact on the production of a wide receiver. So take for instance Vincent Jackson and Golden Tate. You have a hard time deciding who to rank higher and have no bias for either of them. You figure why not look at Receptions to see who to pick, Tate has on average 59 and Jackson 47.7 so you rank Tate higher. Your friend read this post and saw that Targets have a greater impact than Receptions so he looked there and saw that Jackson averages 90.7 and Tate 89, not a huge difference but your friend ranks Jackson higher. It might not differ too much but your friend just picked Jackson who averages 113.5 FPT/Season while you picked Tate who averages 99.7 so he most likely got the better player.
Knowing this might not win you your league but it will give you a small edge over someone who did not look at the right numbers before picking!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD