Week 1 Preview – 2016

Starting this week and going on all season long, I will take a look at the week to come. Every Wednesday I will try to provide you with some stats relevant to the upcoming week, notable info and tid bits.

I have the historical stats for each match-up and at least two points for each game. Most of the points will be related to statistical data I collect during the season but I will mix in stats from 2015 in the earlier weeks due to a lack of data. Let’s dig in!

Denver at Carolina 1-4
– D. Funchess averaged 3 targets first half of the season and 4.5 in the later half. As mentioned in Wide Receiver Correlations is Targets the most important stat.
– Cam has not scored over 20 FPTs in the opening game of the last 3 seasons.
– D. Thomas has had under 10 FPTs in 19 games over the last 3 seasons, 11 of those games were last season

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 23-22
– Start Winston, Atlanta has the 15th worst passing D from last year and K. Neal is not starting week 1.
– D. Freeman had 140 FPTs of his 249 FPTs in first 6 games but only had 4.7 in game one. Does he need one game to get going again this year?

Buffalo at Baltimore 3-3
– Tyrod Taylor scores on average 3 more FPTs in away game than at home
– Last time Flacco played Buffalo he had 25.4 FPTs

Chicago at Houston 0-3
– Chicago has never won over Houston, only 3 games but still
– Chicago has 2 of there staring DBs injured

Green Bay at Jacksonville 3-2
– Rodgers averages 2 more FPTs with J. Nelson in the line up
– A. Robinson had over 10 FPTs in all but 3 losses last year, Green Bay is favorites so look for a ton of points from him

San Diego at Kansas City 55-56
– Melvin Gordon averaged 6.2 YPC in the preseason compared to 3.5 YPC last season and Chiefs were 25th in rushing defense year
– Jamaal Charles will not play, can anyone say Spencer Ware

Oakland at New Orleans 5-6
– Saints had the 2nd to worst passing defense in the league last year, start Carr!
– Brandin Cooks had less than 6 targets twice last year, shootout in the dome, start!

Cincinnati at New York Jets 8-17
– No security blanking in T. Eifert, No M. Jones and no M. Sanu, sit the Red Rifle
– Careful with G. Bernard and J. Hill vs. 2nd best run defense last year
– Cincinnati 3rd in INTs last year and Fitzpatrick had 15 INTs, Pick up Bengals D

Cleveland at Philadelphia 31-16
– DON’T START ANYONE! Barnidge only guy I like in Cleveland, but Philly only let up 6.9 FPTs per game to tight ends last year.
– Philly D has the highest ceiling for defense and Cleveland’s passing attack is still uncertain

Minnesota at Tennessee 8-4
– Only AP in Minnesota, stay away week 1 from other players
– Tajee Sharpe is the number 1 guy for Mariota, can be a flex guy
– DeMarco vs. an average run defense, I’m OK with starting him

Miami at Seattle 10-4
– If I can, I’m sitting A. Foster this week
– Not sur who will be the nr:1 guy in the backfield for Seattle, not starting anyone unless I hear something from them before the game, but don’t panic Dolphins run D is terrible

New York Giants at Dallas 44-62
– ODB has not scored over 5 FPTs vs. Dallas last two games, will start anyway but will be a little scared
– Dallas run defense is just god awful, and probably even worse than last year, possible start for Jennings
– Giants love giving up points to QBs, specially running QBs, might be an opening to take a shot at Dak Prescott

Detroit at Indianapolis 19-21
– Indy had the 6th worst passing defense last year, start either Tate or Jones
– Even tough Luck was hurt he still posted 22 FPTs in week 1 last year, and 34.4 and 26.7 3 years ago, Start for the love of god!

New England at Arizona 6-7
– I’m only starting Gronk for New England if I’m not forced to start Blount in a zero RB team
– I would not take a chance on John Brown in this game, stash him for next week

Pittsburgh at Washington 32-42
– Redskins had the 7th worst run defense, start DeAngelo, Redskins 8th worst passing defense might be better with Josh Norman, but only might
– Matt Jones is still injured, Pittsburgh’s tight end defense was not good last year, Jordan Reed is my only starter for Washington

Los Angeles at San Francisco 64-66 (or 0-0 this time around if you wish)
– Well you are starting Gurley anyway but just for fun, the 49ers gave up the second amount of points to running backs last year, and Chip’s Eagles was number 4 on that list, count on a ton of points
– I will not touch the 49ers!

Finally we will get to watch some real football. Good luck to everyone this week, unless you are playing against me in any league!

Let me know if there is any special stat you would like to be covered for the week 2 preview!

Like, comment and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

 

 

photo credit: Ryan Mallett via photopin (license)


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