Where would Kurt Warner rank among today’s elite quarterbacks? Kurt was a hell of a player but can his numbers stack up in fantasy against the massive scoring we see today? I am taking a look at some of Kurt’s key stats and fantasy points from his whole career and then putting his numbers to the test in a re-ranking of this year’s quarterbacks. Let’s dig in!
Kurt Warner averaged just 11 games per season during his career so we have to account for that when looking at his numbers. When crunching the numbers it is highly unlikely that he will play 16 games, with his ceiling numbers for games played is 15.24, so if we draft him, we probably have to draft 2 quarterbacks or be ready to drop him.
Looking at Kurt’s game average of 17.35 FPTs/Game with a standard deviation of 5.21 his ceiling per game is 22.56 and his floor 12.14. Those numbers are pretty interesting to compare to, let us say, a 2015 rookie. Jameis Winston had a ceiling last year of 25.8 and a floor of 17.6! That is a rookie vs. a Super Bowl Champion. I’m not saying Winston can’t be a Super Bowl Champion but it is interesting to compare what we used to see in just a few years back vs. the numbers we see today. More on the comparison, Winston’s Completions percentage was 6% lower last year than Kurt’s average but he still got more points.
Maybe we should add scoring to quarterbacks over a certain completion percentage, given they pass over a certain amount of times?
So, to answer the question, Where Would Kurt Warner Rank?
In my quarterback floor rankings, with his 12.14, he would be ranked as my 22nd quarterback. He would push R. Fitzpatrick g and his 11.9 down to a 23rd place and land right behind E. Manning and his 12.3. So if you are basing your quarterback pick on floor numbers, as I do, Kurt would not be viable unless you play in a 2 quarterback league or you stream them.
In the ceiling rankings, Kurt, with his 22.56 would rank dead last. He does not even make the cut for where I stopped doing statistics for quarterbacks. My lowest ceiling numbers I have in my spreadsheets is 23.1 and that is T. Bridgewater. So if Kurt played today and you were looking for upside, he would not be your guy.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD