Quarterback Correlations – 2016

Finally we get back to some numbers, and not any numbers, quarterback correlations! This is the most in-depth correlations analysis I have done. I have looked at 16 different stats for quarterbacks to see if we can find anything interesting. All of them concern passing so keep that in mind when you don’t see any numbers concerning running quarterbacks.

Quick reminder that r measures the strength of the correlation between two variables. will be between +1 and -1. The close is to either end the stronger the correlation.

I will start with listing all the stats and the correlation between the stat and Fantasy Football Points per season (FPTs/S) and after that dig deeper into some of the stats. Let’s dig in!

Stat r
Completions per season 0.951
Attempts per season 0.956
Accuracy 0.393
Attempts per game 0.471
Yards per season 0.971
Average yard per completions 0.520
Yards per game 0.646
Touchdown per season 0.973
Interceptions per season 0.709
1st downs per season 0.971
Longest completion 0.533
20+ yard completions per season 0.971
40+ yard completions per season 0.837
Sacks per season 0.838
Quarterback rating 0.767

As we can see from this table, every stat I have looked at has a positive correlation with Fantasy Production. So for instance the more sacks a QB takes the more points he will earn, the correlation isn’t even that weak which I find funny, you really don’t mind that your quarterback gets knocked around a few too many times (unless you draft Romo then you don’t want a single hit).

The stronger correlations that stand out are Touchdowns (r=0.973) Yards per season, 1st Downs and 20+ yard completions (All with r=0.971).
The weaker correlations that stand out are Accuracy (r=0.393), Average yard per completion (0.520) and Longest completion (0.533).

I want to illustrate the difference with two charts so it is clear what we are talking about. It is very clear when looking at these two scatter plots that there is a difference in how the numbers act. We can see the strong correlation between Touchdowns and FPT/Season with the trend-line going upwards, the more touchdowns a QB has the more Fantasy Points, might seem obvious but it was not the same for Wide Receivers.

When looking at the Correlation between the Accuracy and FPTs/Season the trend-line is more flat. The r is 0.393 so the line is closer to horizontal. That means that when you are looking to draft a quarterback you should not put too much emphasis if he is accurate or not, as long as he scores touchdowns you are good!

If you noticed that Attempts per season has a much stronger correlation than Attempts per game there is an answer. The Attempts per game is affected by quarterbacks that played fewer games but had many Attempts, while their Attempts over the Season was much lower than average. Same thing can be said with Yards per game.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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