Week 3 Probabilities – 2016

I decided to shake things up a little bit this week. I have not been particularly happy with the last two previews so I figured why not focus more on numbers this week. The numbers in this week’s post will focus on two things. Ceiling/Floor projections based on their yearly projections and Team 1’s probability of reaching or outscoring this projections.

Let’s focus on the projections first. The ceiling projections are based on their numbers from earlier posts and how many games they are projected to play. See QB, WR, RB, TE, K and DST posts for their yearly game projections. I have them placed their projection in relation to their scoring from weeks 1 and 2 to arrive at two projections for week 3, One Ceiling and one Floor projection featured in column 2 and 3 below.

team-1-proj-with-prob

To make the projections mean anything more than what someone thinks or what numbers suggests I put the projections in relation to the probability of the player outscoring the Ceiling or scoring lower than the Floor. Those probabilities are based on the player’s performance over the last three years, in all games, home or away games and division or outside the division. Take Matt Ryan for instance, his 52 % chance to outscore his Ceiling is based on his performance within NFC South in Away Games over the last 3 years and his performance over all.

I know that no probability is over 70 % but my reasoning for this week was to have a team with higher chance of outscoring the Ceiling than scoring lower than the Floor. If I change the projections the probabilities will change and be more accurate.

Rookies have not gotten any projection just yet, I have not enough college data to base their performance on and therefore I will wait a little longer into the season.

Marvin Jones, Melvin Gordon and Travis Benjamin has gotten updated projections based on a third of Megatron’s, Danny Woodhead’s and Keenan Allen’s workload. The projection is then based on the new workload and their production from earlier years and so far this season.

If you would like to get the probabilities done for your team, feel free to tweet me @qalled with your lineup and I will have it done before Sunday rolls around!
It is a good way to decide who to sit and who to start in those tricky situations when you don’t feel like trusting the guys that set the lineup with their gut.

Unfortunately I did not have time to do the probabilities for all my players this week so I will just post their weekly projection down below.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

 

Projections.PNG

photo credit: Ezekiel Elliott via photopin (license)


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