A quarter of the the season has been played and CSD Fantasy’s numbers has produced. By following the numbers I have managed to put my teams on a 15-5 yearly record. This site will never do the woulda coulda shoulda thing that other fantasy writers do, no names mentioned. I can say I should have been 17-3 if I did this and that but when you look at it, if someone else did this or that I might have lost a game or two more. For instance I sat Matt Ryan in one league this week, but in another game my opponent sat Michael Crabtree, that is just how the game works.
After 4 weeks we can start to make some more projections for players I did not have any data for. Team 1 featured below have Ezekiel Elliot, he will get his first score projection this week. Team 1 had a really impressive week 4, not just cause it had Matt Ryan but Elliot and McCoy had impressive numbers as well. I will focus on the floor projections this week since I think they show more of why the numbers work.
It is very hard to predict a players ceiling but the floor is easier, that kinda is self explanatory but it is a good indicator how you want your team to be built. If we look at Team 2 instead with Stafford at QB, his floor was 7.9 and he scored 8.22. It was a 3 % chance that he would score lower than 8.2, and I feel comfortable that one or two of my players will score big and he will at least give me 8.2. This is how I have tried building my teams, players with high floors that they will most likely never go under. This leads to really low projections but combine that with the score probabilities and you will get a stable lineup each week.
Team 3, is the perfect example of the risk playing by the numbers, when players don’t reach the floor. Even when Julio Jones, (I was so happy I annoyed the crap out of my girlfriend Kya by playing Me and Julio Down by the schoolyard when he went off) the team lost because it had half of the players not reaching their floor. This has also been my most disappointing team and I will be trading one of OBJ, B. Marshall or K. Benjamin for a stud running back very very soon.
Low scoring week for Team 4 but getting Brady back should help Gronk and now with Bell in the lineup I am hoping the team takes off. I will need to stream a QB next week since Brees has a Bye. The team still performed alright even with the Patriot players and QB did everything in their power to knock me off my top scoring position in the league. P.S. My opponent benched Crabtree and Ryan, $4!t happens.
Carson is even with his best effort surpassed his floor projection and with only DST and Kicker not reaching their floor and Jeffery being close it ended pretty well.
All teams except Team 5 lead by Palmer are in the top 3 in scoring in all leagues so even though my opponents two weeks in a row have low scores in some leagues my score is high enough to beat around 8-9 of everyone week to week.
Tomorrow I will be looking at score probabilities for Team 3 and projections for all other players. If you would like probabilities done for your team tweet me at @qalled
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD