Week 5 Score Projections and Probabilities – 2016

It is that time again, it is time to get ready for next week! As soon as one week ends the next one begins. So if you had a rough time week 4 this week might be your redemption?

That is exactly how I feel about CSD Fantasy Team 3! They are responsible for 40 % of all my losses this year with a 2-2 record. What separates Team 3 from the other 4 teams is the fact that it was put together in an auction draft so me overspending on some players may be the reason they are lagging behind in the rankings. But then again, I spent the money on OBJ, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. Well no reason to cry over the past, as I said in the beginning it is a new week and have done a probability analysis for Team 3’s score projection.

3
Team 3

If my player has under 50% chance of scoring lower than my Projection I am a happy camper and as you can see in the chart above, only Brandon Marshall has a higher risk than 50%. I choose him over Julio Jones this week due to the fact that the Falcons play Denver, and Benjamin over Jones because they play the Buccs who are the worst team in the league vs. receivers, even in Anderson starts I feel good about it. Worth noting about Marshall’s risk is that if he would have had a home game it would have been 46 % instead.

Blount’s, Powell’s and the Steelers low risks is of course connected to their low projections, but it also gives me a lot of comfort knowing that they will most likely score some points.

Delanie Walker hasn’t the lowest risk but due to his projection I feel very good about him, if he in fact is healthy.

As we are seeing more teams going on byes now I will try to trade away one of my receivers for a stud running back David Johnson, Demarco Murray or Le’Veon Bell or buy low on for instance Gurley with Diggs, Travis or Kelvin Benjamin as my guy.

If you would like your team’s probability analysis or if you have two players that you have projections for and would like to know the risk, tweet me at @qalled and I would be more than happy to provide you with an edge over your co-workers!

Ezekiel Eliott, Jordan Howard, Sterling Shepard and Christine Michael have gotten their own projections now and can be found below, with the rest of my players. These new projections are based on the players production so far this year, put trough my numbers and spread out over 16 games.

 

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

 

1
Team 1
2
Team 2
4
Team 4
5
Team 5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

photo credit: Keith Allison Dallas Cowboys via photopin (license)

 


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