It was close but even in Week 5 the numbers produce a 4-1 record. Two teams with scoring under 90 but also a victory for a team that played against David Johnson and T.Y. Hilton who combined for 60 points against Team 2. With Week 5 in the books the yearly record now stands at 19-6 which even though I trust my numbers is pretty incredible. Combining all the teams gives the numbers a 76 % win chance. I know that two teams has a 3-2 record which is not that great but it is still a winning one and by following more than one team gives us a bigger sample to draw conclusions from. Let’s dig in!
Team 1: Pretty solid W with only 2 players scoring below their projected floor and one was Matt Ryan who played Denver and still came close. Ezekiel Elliot got his own projections for the first time for Week 5 and HOLY S#%* did he not like 7.1 as a floor. A floor is a floor but his ceiling is David Johnson numbers which I have no problem with! T.Y. Hilton has the second highest amount of targets in the league after 5 weeks, and not to pound it in more but it is the most important stat for wide receivers! Dan Bailey did not reach his floor, maybe not that strange since he had a back injury and the Cowboys had no problem scoring Touchdowns.
I was so afraid going into Monday Night Football for this team. I was around 30 points behind but still had Winston, Evans and Brate. But seeing as my quarterbacks have a tendency to try to loose me games I was not comfortable at all. But then came what I was waiting for, Winston to Brate for a big gain followed by a Touchdown by Evans, boom 0.5 points behind. I feel a little bit sorry for my opponent that had T.Y. and David Johnson and still lost, it was a cool match-up.
Team 3 did not perform that well, not as bad as Team 4 but still not what I had hoped. I had a last minute change of heart when I put Julio back in the lineup but it did not matter, my opponent played Torrey Smith 0 FPTs, John Brown 1.1 FPTs and so on. Will not go into much detail since the performance once again was poor by Team 3. For next week this team will see at least one big change. Trade is pending!
Team 4 needed a quarterback with Drew Brees on a bye and the only one my numbers wanted to pick up was Tannehill. I do not question my rankings cause they usually lead me to the right conclusion but this backfired hard. It did not help that I face T.Y. and David Johnson in two leagues this week… and also Jordan Howard. I guess I am pretty happy that my team had an awful week when I got pummeled. But 4 players on red including quarterback and first round pick is not good.
Two players not reaching floor is usually a good thing! Pretty stable win in the end and Team 5 is finally scoring some higher numbers. I am still lagging after in scoring in this league even though I am topping the standings. Worrisome is Hoyer’s reluctance to throw to Alshon Jeffery and that San Diego is really struggling. Bernard looked as the clear cut nr:1 against Dallas so hoping his workload stays stable. Gostkowski is under performing two weeks in a row, last week the lack of offense was the problem this week the efficiency of the offense was the problem.
Still a really good week and the yearly record keeps on improving!
Tomorrow I will be looking at score probabilities for Team 4 and projections for all other players. If you would like probabilities done for your team or for players you are deciding between, tweet me @qalled
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD