Week 6 Score Projections and Probabilities – 2016

Here we go! This week we have some more probabilities done. Charles and Ashley asked to get their teams projections and probabilities so we have some more players this time. I have also done a little change, I have a new way of displaying risk. I show the normal risk of scoring under the floor but also what is the projection for the players when they have a 50/50 chance. For instance, Derek Carr has a projection of 16.5 with a risk of scoring lower of 35 %. If we move his risk to 50 % he gets a projection of 19.2. I hope this can help when decided who to start. Next week I will add the same projection with the different risks for players. Let’s dig in!

team-4

So picking who to start for this team for Week 6 had mostly to do with the wide receivers and the DST. Running back and tight end was a pretty clear decision even without the numbers. Looking at Sammie Coates, Travis Benjamin and Philip Dorsett we see floors of 3, -0.8 and 1.8. Benjamin’s floor is below 0 due to the fact that his performances have been so much higher than his projected season floor, I will evaluate his floor soon to get it to a more reasonable state. But comparing the floors in relation to the risk and the projection for 50 % risk I choose to go with Coates thanks to his higher projection with the 50 % and his higher floor in general.

For the DST I chose the Steelers due to that they have a positive floor, and I that they are playing the Dolphins, could not resist. The Eagles have been doing really well with turnovers so their floor has become significantly lower, they might not be able to keep this going according to the numbers.

This week I will include Ashley’s and Charlie’s teams with their probabilities as well so you can get access to more numbers. Also follow my twitter for other people’s probabilities later on in the week. Down below you can also find the projections for all my other players.

If you would like your team’s probability analysis or if you have two players that you have projections for and would like to know the risk, tweet me at @qalled and I would be more than happy to provide you with an edge over your co-workers!

 

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

 

team-1
Team 1
team-2
Team 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

team-3
Team 3
team-5
Team 5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

photo credit: Keith Allison Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Baker via photopin (license)


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