The numbers keep improving every week but the 5-0 is still eluding me! 4-1 for a couple of weeks straight now but just to compare real quick with last week that had 2 teams under 90 points, saw Week 6 with 2 teams over 140 and no team under 100. Looking at the win differentials and how many players scored over their floor it is easy to see what teams struggled. Team 3, 4 and 5 all and multiple players not reaching their floor, and with that saw two close games and one loss.
Yearly record is now up to 23-7 with a win chance of 76.6 % if you follow my numbers in your drafts.
Team 1: When writing this I had to go back and see what my opponent did to score so low, and I guess when you take a shot at stacking Pittsburgh players and some misfits you might have a bad time when Roethlisberger goes down. But anyway, the closest anyone in that league was to me this week was 110 points so there was not much to worry about. McCoy is playing lights out, and to think I got him in the 3rd round… I know I say I follow my numbers but I was really unsure on T.Y. Hilton’s health 5 minutes before kickoff this Sunday so I put Brandin Cooks in the lineup, T.Y. played but Cooks balled.
Team 2: I had some doubts with Matt Ryan, I am sorry, so I let Stafford start again, good choice but I will still start Ryan next week. Gordon had a rough day but still managed to get me 9.4 which I am all about, even when you have a rough day I want some points, that is how the system is built. Brandon Marshall had an even worse day according to his floor but still gave me enough on Monday for me to be satisfied, especially in for Team 3. Randall Cobb played really well for once and it was actually Rodgers who denied him more points so I am really looking forward to playing one of my higher ranked wide receivers in the future. People laughed at my Jimmy Graham pick, well I am laughing, I drafted him for nothing in the hopes he could bounce back, and behold. Sorry about the smugness.
Team 3: Lamar Miller really went off this week, so when I checked this match-up after Sunday night Football I went from a commanding lead to being down 4 points with Brandon Marshall yet to play. It was a close call but he managed to at least get 7, I am OK with him not reaching his floor in this case. The Steelers was a test of mine trying to play the match-up but I will be going back to my highly ranked Chiefs and Eagles in all my teams next week. Who would have thought the Browns would stop Delanie Walker? They did a good job and he was the 3rd player not to reach his floor for Team 3. It worked out but it was shaky. Fun thing, I have been complaining about my lack of running back production for Team 3 so I traded one of my star receivers, OBJ, last week…. We all know how his week was, I am ok with it, I got 12.5 at least, Blount would have given me more but I feel that Murray gives me the best opportunity to win right now.
Team 4: Another close game, 3 red scores and THANK YOU FITZGERALD for not scoring more than 6 points yesterday! Red scores is one thing but a 0, that is not good. I picked Coates over Sharpe and Dorsett who got 0.1 and 1.2 so all my 3 options was really bad. Gronk is back and seeing as he was my number 1 pick for this team I am very pleased. I see Team 4 making a resurgence in the next few weeks, Bell getting into it, Gronk being Gronk and Murray has some really nice match-ups. I need more from Robinson though, he faces the Raiders so I look forward to that.
So close, but this league is tough! You cannot make any mistakes and think you are getting away with a win here. I went with the Steelers and it cost me the game. I am starting to see a trend in the number of players not reaching the floor and if I win or lose, will look into it further, I know you can win with 3 reds but it will be tight. Dak and Elliot are doing work and I am concerned with them on a bye next week. Alshon saw a lot more targets this week, I hope it continues, I love me some targets! Bernard got 3 or 4 goals line carries without getting in, that is not good for the future, he faces Cleveland next week so hopefully he will get it done then. Thomas happened to be in the lineup again cause of bye week and injury to Ebron, I am officially out on Thomas now.
Tomorrow I will be looking at score probabilities for Team 5 and projections and risk analysis for all other players. If you would like probabilities done for your team or for players you are deciding between, tweet me @qalled
I received a request that I do head-2-head between players, so I will take some and put them against each other going forward, tweet me players you would like to see and I will add them to the mix.
Below is a chart of how all the players in my database produced compared to their respective floor projection. There are not a lot of valleys and that is good, that means that the floors are a valid projection, of course we see some duds but that is bound to happen.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD