Score Projections and Risk Analysis Week 8 – 2016

Ok I have covered all 5 teams with score projections and probabilities over the last 5 weeks. I will continue to provide their full projections but will not do a single team with analysis this week. I am helping out the Swedish Embassy with some work so getting a little tight on time when I get home at night so to save some time, I thought I present some Rest of Season (ROS) numbers for kickers and of course the score projection and risk of scoring under 10pts for all players in my database. I hope that sounds good, let’s dig in!

When looking at my teams current projections below and that goes for all the players in today’s post, the projections are based on the first 7 weeks and, all of them have a risk of 16 %. That means Matt Ryan has a risk of 16 % of scoring under his projection, 16.9 and Ezekiel Elliott has a 16 % to score under 7. These projections are of course floor projections as usual, but are a little bit more uncertain than the season projections since the sample size is much smaller, it will however raise projections for Matt Ryan who is having a good year and give rookies a more reliable one than a guess.

 

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Score Projections and Risks for all player in my database can be found HERE, they are in alphabetical order based on first name and to search for a player, press ctrl+f and type his name.

Rich @Loki1616, asked for ROS Kickers, I posted them on twitter yesterday but I thought we should take a look at them in the post as well. Seeing as Gostkowski cannot be found anywhere below I will start looking for kickers to replace him with, and if you have read any of my previous posts you might remember that I like to have safe bets on some positions, such at QB and Kicker. Looking at the charts below we can see that Josh Lambo is the kicker with the lowest scoring variation from the first 7 weeks, I will target the kicker who has the best combination. That would be Lambo, Bryant and then Vinatieri.

new-piktochart_554_960edf92afc665c8580218fa4dbe31bdd8b6ee43.png

Feel free to suggest players for the H2H on Friday!

If you would like your team’s probability analysis or if you have two players that you have projections for and would like to know the risk, tweet me at @qalled and I would be more than happy to provide you with an edge over your co-workers!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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