Score Projections and Risk Analysis Week 9 – 2016

Week 9 is closing in and we are seeing plenty of bye weeks once again. This means that you still might have many players you are wondering how the will perform and who to replace your stud on a bye. This is where Score Projections and Risk Analysis come in, I present the floor projections for my entire database each week in combination with the risk of scoring under 10pts. I find the floor to be a better number to plan my lineups after due to the fact that it is easier to predict than the ceiling. Most players will outscore their floor so it helps you get a sense of what to expect, having the ceiling is all fine and dandy but knowing that Blake Bortles won’t score over 40pts does not really tell you what he will score. So keep that in mind when looking at the rankings, and feel free to tweet me players that you would like me to dig deeper on, @qalled. Let’s dig in!

Score Projections and Risk Analysis for all players in my Database can be found Here!

When looking at my teams current projections below and that goes for all the players in today’s post, the projections are based on the first 8 weeks and, all of them have a risk of 16 %. I try to keep the risks as low as possible for my lineups and I prefer to mix players with high floor at the 16% risk and low risk at 10pts. If I am picking between two players I put these two numbers against each other and depending on the teams need I pick the player. Example. Branin Cooks has a lower floor than Davante Adams but his risk of scoring under 10pts is lower, I am going to need Cooks to score a lot so I pick him.

 

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Tom Brady tops my ROS Quarterback rankings, not really a huge surprise considering the way his been playing, the only problem is that he will most likely not be available in any leagues. Quarterbacks that you might be able to pick up if you are in need are Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton and maybe, maybe Derek Carr. I am set with Matt Ryan in most of my leagues but I have Drew Brees as my main guy in another, so might look into getting one of these guys in case something happens to him. I usually don’t like high risk QBs but looking at these numbers I can easily see I have two in my teams.

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Feel free to suggest players for the H2H on Friday!

If you would like your team’s probability analysis or if you have two players that you have projections for and would like to know the risk, tweet me at @qalled and I would be more than happy to provide you with an edge over your co-workers!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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