I have some thoughts on who to start this week so I decided to crunch the numbers. The players I am choosing between are Cole Beasley and Allen Robinson. The reason it even is a choice is Beasley’s yearly numbers, they have been amazing. But looking at the numbers below over the last 3 years Robinson should be the safer pick for fantasy points, but the yearly Floor Projection for Beasley is at the moment higher than Robinson’s. As always I say that the season floor projections are less accurate due to sample size, but now we have played 8 games, that gives us more comfort in the projections.
After analyzing the charts I will be going with Allen Robinson this week, his floor of does concern me but the stability of his performance is combined with another factor is what helps me make the decision. The other thing is Beasley’s home/away split, he is much more unsafe to play away than Robinson, and considering that both of them are playing away this week against top defenses vs. Wide Receivers I’m going with Robinson. If Beasley would have played at home with that floor advantage I would have played him.
Eric Ebron is at the moment my second highest ranked tight end followed by Greg Olsen so I wanted to show Ebron’s career numbers vs. Olsen’s last 3 years. I did these numbers after I had crunched Beasley’s and Robinson’s and I was amazed that Olsen actually has better numbers than Robinson, if there was a choice for a flex play Olsen would be my long-term starter over Robinson.
Seeing the numbers makes it even clearer than what I believe is the consensus, Olsen is the better start. Unlucky for me do I not have the option to choose but it is fun to see just how good Olsen has been over the last 3 years, and that Ebron actually is closing in after this year. Ebron’s floor right now is higher but it is so marginal that I would not feel comfortable going with him over Olsen.
If you would like your team’s probability analysis or if you have two players that you have projections for and would like to know the risk, tweet me at @qalled and I would be more than happy to provide you with an edge over your co-workers!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD