Score Projections and Risk Analysis Week 11 – 2016

Today I will, as promised, focus on the new improved projections for Quarterbacks and the ROS Rankings for Running Backs will be moved to tomorrow due to the length of this post. Let’s dig in!

In the past I have done my yearly projections based on the fantasy points from the last 3 years, less if you haven’t played for 3 years and my weekly projections based on this year. This week for Quarterbacks will be a little different to make them more reliable, and this trend of improving the weekly projections will continue to improve especially next year with an algorithm I am working on, but for now this is how I will do it.

I have looked at Pass Yards, TDs, INTs and Rush Yards, have not solved Rush TDs yet so bear with me. By splitting up the Fantasy Points into these categories the projections becomes more accurate, the further you break down the formula the more accurate. So take Drew Brees as an example, the floors in these categories would be 10.2, 6.5, 0 and -3.1 for a combined 13.2. In comparison is my regular projection 17.6 so it is a huge difference since I now have calculated for him throwing what the numbers say would be his worst game in all categories. The least yards, least TDs, least rush yards and most amount of INTs.

So to share these numbers with you I thought of different ways but ended up going with a picture of all the numbers. This way you can see the difference in the standard projection and the new one and as they do in the click bait business, You would not Believe the results! No but to be fair, some quarterbacks specially non elites will slide on my rankings.

The Floor means the least amount of points they will get from each category, not that Tom Brady will pass for 10.6 yards.

Capture.PNG

I find that the INT column is the most interesting one cause in that column you really see how it affects the Total the most. By preparing for the worst case scenario in all categories the most stable quarterbacks will rise to the top and quarterbacks with a risk of getting -7.1 points from INTs will be dead last. Rivers I guess lost a lot of ground with 4 picks last week but he already had one game with 3, and that is not what I would like in the QB I start in fantasy. The only player who defies this rule is of course Blake Bortles, but I have given up hope in trying to predict what he will do.

Also take a look at Carson Palmer and his first Yards Column, he has the third highest floor there but his TD floor and the fact that he throws too many interceptions really lowers his Total Floor. I was excited for Palmer at the start of the season and drafted him as my “right now” QB in my Dynasty league but his numbers this year has really turned his season rankings. You have to be open to question your first numbers when the sample size gets a little bigger, I dropped him after 4 weeks and now I see that it was the right move.

Quarterbacks have been removed from the Full Database sheet since their projections are posted above. Do find a player in the Database press ctrl+f and search for his name. If you cannot find a player you are looking for, let me know on twitter @qalled and I will add him, and get back to you with his projection and risk as soon as possible.

Full Database Score Projection and Risk Analysis for Week 11

Let me know on twitter if you have players you would like score projections and or a full risk analysis for, also feel free to tweet me suggestions for Head-2-Heads, @qalled

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: Keith Allison Carson Wentz via photopin (license)


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