Tyreek Hill seems to be the name everyone is talking about this week and so I got an inquiry to compare him to Marvin Jones. I thought I would only do one H-2-H this week but go a little bit more in-depth.
Before I start talking about the numbers quick reminder of who they play so you can use the numbers to justify a start or sit this week.
Tyreek Hill: At Home vs. Tampa Bay, Non-Division Game
Marvin Jones: At Home vs. Jacksonville, Non-Division Game
So comparing their numbers at home we can see that Jones has an advantage in Avg Yards, Targets and has a higher points floor, but the fact that Hill’s TD production at home has been so good he is almost at the same points average.
Looking at the away numbers we see a rise in fantasy points, their floors goes up and the amount of yards goes up for both of them. The Touchdown rate is about the same and Jones still has an advantage over Hill in almost every category, except the points floor, which I value very high when looking for a stable play.
Here we start to see real differences, in case both of them had a division match-up and I needed a big game from one of them I would go with Jones every time. But if I needed a really small but stable floor I could be persuaded to go with Hill since his points floor is higher.
When playing outside the division Hill is actually outperforming Jones in big play-ability and I would go for him if I needed something special and for Jones when looking for stability. Jones’s floor is also a lot higher than his division floor, 3.2 vs. 1.8 which is significantly higher.
Looking at the risks, Jones has lower risks of scoring under 10 points in almost ever scenario, except outside the division and that is key this week since both play home games outside the division.
Hill: ROS Fantasy Points Floor, 2.8pts, Playing at Home vs Outside Division 76% risk of scoring under 10pts
Jones: ROS Fantasy Points Floor, 1.5pts, Playing at Home vs Outside Division 82 % risk of scoring under 10pts
I would start Hill over Jones this week according to these numbers, if this was an away game, a case could have been made for Jones but these numbers are too much in favor of Hill to be ignored.
Let me know on twitter if you have players you would like score projections and or a full risk analysis for @qalled
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD