Missed a lot of football this week due to Thanksgiving and a lot of travel so I will focus on what I talked about last week, changes in my teams and why I do them. Let’s dig in!
I might have gone too far in my quest for the highest floors of the players I pick each week, I will evaluate that even more in the future so not to see a team of high floors but high risk of scoring under 10pts. That would lead to a lot of players scoring above the floor but under 10pts. Players that are in this zone are Cole Beasley Sterling Shepard and Allen Robinson. Combining these 3 is dangerous, they have high floors but lowering ceilings so even when they hit the floor they can’t win me a game on their own. Team 1 is going to go against this because they played too many players with high ceilings and really low floors before.
Team 1: After a week 11 loss I felt like I needed more stability than big play ability from this team and of course Matt Ryan was off his bye so he was back in the lineup. Ryan’s floor was 1.6pts higher than Andy Dalton’s which is huge, and as you can see below he delivered just above that. Jamison Crowder replaced Brandin Cooks, and with that raised my floor 2.3pts even more. I knew I wanted one of Cooks and Thomas and Thomas had the highest floor so he was my pick. It worked out well for this team, even though Ebron had a ZERO… I started him on several teams.
Team 2: Starting 10-0 made me cocky, and now Team 2 is 10-2, don’t over think things. I drafted Brandon Marshall as a starter and just cause his season floor has gone down I should still start him due to his numbers heading into the season. His sample size is big enough that he will regress back to his mean. Even if I had started him Jimmy Graham and Justin Tucker I still would not have won so no big deal. I tried changing this team up with putting in Ebron over Graham, Gordon over Cobb and Ryan over Stafford, and 2 out of 3 changes worked out so that is still a good thing.
Team 3: A lot of changes was done to this team and they panned out pretty well. Julio came in over Benjamin, not because of his floor but because of low risk of scoring under 10pts and he was the only let down. Ryan back in over Winston, that was good. Bryant in over Barth all good. I also put the Chargers in over the Chiefs, they had a 0.4pt floor advantage but ended up scoring a ton more than that. It was still a close game due to the RBs and Julio being bad. I still haven’t a solution for Murray being out next week but will look into some numbers.
Team 4: Wanted to swap out Bennett for Gronk but in a last-minute desperation I turned to a fellow who I have streamed a lot this year, Cameron Brate and he at least gave me more than Ebron. I thought letting A.Rob play over Davante Adams was a good idea some how and that change was the worst one of my week. Otherwise this team stayed pretty much the same except for Bryant in over Barth.
Team 5: Gio hurt, Gordon in, all good in the hood. Sterling Shepard had worse numbers than Davante Adams, all good. Bryant back over Prater, could not be happier or could I? Yes I could be cause I put the Chargers in over KC again and they delivered.
So all in all, the big evaluation from last week gave me another 4-1 weekly record and I now sit at 45-15 over the season. I know some games from time to time has really low scoring opponents but I am still the number 1 scoring team in 4 out of 5 leagues and second in the last one. I try to keep everything transparent so that you know that my projections and advice are followed by myself.
I enjoyed doing full team evaluations like this so I will continue to do it but will post the changes before the games for next week.
Tomorrow will we be looking at the Score Projections and Risks for my Database going into week 13.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD