Week 13 Score Projections and Risk Analysis – 2016

I am back in action 100 % this week so this week I’m doing the full change analysis of my teams heading into week 13. I will also as usual post the new QB Rankings and Score Projections and Risks for all my players down below. Let’s dig in!

Explanation: Changes represent players who started for the team last week. Floor Difference is the change from the player who starts this week compared to the one who started last, positive numbers is what I am looking for here. Risk Difference is the difference in Risk of Scoring under 10pts and negative numbers is what I’m looking for.

t1
So changes for week 13 will be out with T.Y. and Crowder and in with Howard and Adams. Howard gets the chance even though his floor is lower but he has significantly lower risk of scoring under 10pts and I need more high scorers. T.Y. without Luck is not that good and he also suffers from a bad back so this choice was easy even though the numbers are very comparable.

t2
Murray is on a bye so he will have to sit on the bench for three teams this week, so the numbers associated with him is only due to that fact. I could have played both Shepard and Cobb over Marshall based on floor but I once again felt like I needed to go with the lower risk. Hill goes in over Shepard for the same reason. You will see the Chargers on a lot of my teams this week, their numbers are just too good and I don’t know why more people are not picking them up?

t3
My Titans team will have to be the Falcons this week instead. I really did not have that many choices with running backs on for this team but found Coleman of the waivers to replace Murray. The reason can be found in the little table below, Coleman is just a much better fit than my other options. Marshall actually has worse numbers than Kelvin Benjamin this season but I hoping for a regression back to the mean for him and he starts performing more according to his season projection. Saying that if Diggs is healthy I might play him instead.

skarmklipp

t4
After seeing Asiata’s number above I really don’t feel too good about him but it was him or Booker so went with Asiata. I hate benching Allen Robinson but I statistician got to do what a statistician got to do.

t5
Had to release Shepard in this league for a secret strategy I’m working for in this league. It is a Dynasty league so it has implications on next season so that is why Travis Benjamin is starting over him this week. Adams is a better play than Matthews so I don’t feel too bad with him on a bye.

This is how I do my lineups every week and how I try to balance highest Floors with lowest Risk to get a balanced team of safe players that also can score over 10pts. If you would like a similar study done on one of your teams, tweet me @qalled

The QB projections above are based on a less advanced algorithm compared to the ones below so if you have the opportunity to pick between QB’s the projections below are more accurate.

qb.PNG

For the full Score Projection and Risk Analysis of my database click this link.

Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @qalled for individual players risk or score projection. All projections are for floors, worst case scenario.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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