Score Projection and Risk Analysis Week 14 – 2016

One day ahead of schedule with the Score Projections and Risk Analysis this week. The reason for this is that I have something special planned for tomorrow and the upcoming 3 weeks. I though that, hey we are heading into Playoff season why not do some more in-depth analysis of match-ups? So I am working on some numbers to help you decide on some key positions and maybe help you pick up someone from waivers in case you are feeling some injuries. So keep an eye out tomorrow for a leg up in your playoffs, mine on the other hand won’t start until week 15. Let’s dig in!

For two weeks in a row I have Aaron Rodgers as top dog. His risk has however gone up by a whole 1 %. All quarterback risks are for scoring under 15pts and Rodgers had 16pts Week 13 which impacted his Week 14 risk by 1 %. But a 15pts floor for him is still pretty incredible with that risk. He’s 3 % lower than Cousins in who is in second place but after that there is a big gap down to 3rd place. I would not think that either of them would be available in your leagues but Dalton might be and he still ranks 9th, and he plays Cleveland this week, something to think about.

QBproj.PNG

Derek Carr is getting a ton of love from different sources but I would not start him unless I’m in a 14 team league or more. But he is fun to watch I will give him that, and Dameshek liking him to Luke Skywalker was fantastic!

You can get all players Score Projection and Risk analysis in the link below, but I thought I should write a little bit about the non-quarterbacks. I decided to post my top 30 players that are not Kickers, QBs or DSTs.

The 1 Game Ceiling is the most amount of points I expect a player to score and that number has only a 16 % chance to be scored or outscored and the floor has a 16 % risk of not be reached. The % in the Risk % column is the risk of scoring under 10pts. The Variance is how a players scoring fluctuates, the higher the number the more fluctuation.

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Sorted after ROS Floor.

The thing I find most interesting is to compare the different columns to try to figure out the best combination for a team. Take Ebron, Ajayi and Dez as examples. Ebron’s floor is usually very stable at 4.6 with only 11 in Variance but his ceiling is only 10.7pts while Ajayi’s floor is much higher at 22pts but his Variance is also much higher, his risk of scoring under 10 is however lower than Ebron’s. Dez Bryant has a mix of between of the other two players so I would like to play him over the other two.

For the full Score Projection and Risk Analysis of my database click this link. No DST they will be posted in tomorrow’s post.

Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @qalled for individual players risk or score projection. All projections are for floors, worst case scenario.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: Keith Allison Aaron Rodgers via photopin (license)


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