Score Projection, Risk Analysis and Playoff Numbers Week 16 – 2016

Could not muster the energy to write a post yesterday after all the traveling so decided to combine them today instead. It will be a lot more numbers, fewer words and a fairly long post so bear with me. Let’s dig in!

Rodgers is still the undisputed QB nr:1 but Matt Ryan has now taken over the nr:2 spot. I will be playing him in 3 finals in the upcoming week. Brees took some steps up on the list again after a masterful week 15, and seeing as his arm is not out of it yet he will be back in 1 lineup for the finals. Prescott still ranks far ahead of Winston so he will take my last playoff spot.

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David Johnson still tops the top 20 ranked non qb/k players in this last week, he’s just to good of a fantasy player, and real player to be moved out of there. Eyeing the list a litter closer, there are a lot of high-end running backs at the top, might be worth looking into one or two of them at the top of the draft next year?

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For all Score Projections and Risks follow this link

You can  also tweet me for more numbers for players you are picking between @qalled

It just so happens that the two DSTs I have been playing the most all year are also my two highest ranked ones going into the last week, the Chargers and the Chiefs. I will be playing the Chargers in all my match-ups thanks to this. DSTs that might be out there to pick up would be the Titans and perhaps the Giants or Redskins. If you have been playing the Texans or Lions I could not recommend more that you get rid of them, and seeing as you are reading this you are probably in a Championship game and should have a ton of options to turn to.

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Explanation of Numbers:
Pts From Int= How many fantasy points a DST averages per game from Interceptions
Pts From Sacks= How many fantasy points a DST averages per game from Sacks
Opposing Teams Pts/Game= How many points the week 14 opposing team scores on average
Pts from Pts= How many fantasy points a DST averages per game from opposing teams final score
INT and SACK Rating= Combining points from Interceptions, Sacks and Opposing teams average interceptions thrown per game
Fumble Rating= Combining Opposing Teams Average Fumbles lost per game with Defending Teams Average Fumble Recovery per game
Total= The combined numbers from Pts from Pts and INT and SACK Rating and with this number I pick my DST this week.

I will be taking a Christmas vacation after this post and seeing as we celebrate Christmas on Christmas eve in Sweden it will even be difficult for me to watch the games that will decide how this season ends.

I will be back with new posts in 2017 and focus on the rookie draft with college numbers, analyze this season and work on improving my algorithms.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: Keith Allison Dez Bryant via photopin (license)


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