This is the first Rookie post ever on the website so I thought I would explain how I have been looking at them.
As you know I am strictly by the numbers so I have taken the top running backs in this rookie class and compared them by their numbers. I have given their production standard scoring fantasy points and 0.5ppr to make them easier to compare. I then look at their 1 game floor and their 1 game ceiling while taking the amount of attempts into account.
Since the draft is not yet complete I cannot take their future workload into account, we will just have to look at their previous production and make an assessment after the draft who will have the best situation.
I am looking at nine running backs today and nine more on Wednesday. Today’s nine are the Tier 2 guys and Wednesday’s nine are Tier 1. I decided do put them in two Tiers instead of a complete ranking since we know so little where they will be drafted. Let’s dig in!
These players form my Tier 2 and are sorted after their Ceiling in Standard Scoring. The reasoning behind the sorting is that I will most definitely not spend a high draft pick on them, probably not in dynasty either so I will look to upside and not for a high floor. To get a feel for these players, Devonta Freeman with similar Round projection had a 1.2 Floor and a 21.5 Ceiling in college.
In 0.5ppr Christian McCaffrey still tops Tier 2, he is a guy I will keep a closer eye on during draft day and see where he lands. I realize there aren’t any big changes when looking at Standard Scoring vs. 0.5ppr but if you have not read any of my content before, those are my two favorite scoring systems and that is why I tend to crunch my numbers in that way.
Looking at their college workload I think this gets very interesting. D’Onta Foreman has only had 210 rushing attempts and is still in the mix, might be worth taking a shot at him in a dynasty league. There is always two sides of a coin and having experience can be a good thing but it is still college and not the NFL and having too much mileage on a running back is something teams look down upon but does not impact fantasy too much looking at it short-term.
From this group, I will keep my eye on McCaffrey, Mixon, Foreman and Clement. I want to see where they land and evaluate their future NFL fantasy value after that.
I will be going back to all running backs and rank them after the draft but having their numbers in the back of my head will make it easier to know where to put most of my focus.
On Wednesday I’ll look at Tier 1 and next week I dig into the rookie quarterbacks.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD