Welcome to my Draft Guide post. This post about how to get a 72 % win rate is in connection with the YouTube Video I just posted Here! In the YouTube Video I talk about how I set the board and explain the numbers I use when drafting. In this post I will be talking about almost the same stuff so if you prefer to read stick around. Let’s dig in!
First of I start with two numbers, the Floor and the Ceiling. The Floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player on a given week. The Ceiling is the most amount of points I expect from a player on a given week. If you have read any of my previous post during the season I create a floor for players ever week but this is for the whole season.
After that I set my board. I do so by dividing all the players by position and decide who to target in each group. I target 3 quarterbacks, 5 running backs, 5 wide receivers, 4 tight ends, 3 kickers and 3 DSTs. I prefer doing it like this to have a good overview during the draft. In the Video example draft a lot of my top 5 running backs end up falling so I choose to draft wide receivers and waiting on the running backs, this is not a zero running back guide.
When my position boards are done I create what I call a “Best Pick Per Round” board. I compile all the ADPs from the largest sites and in combination with my floor number I find the player with the highest floor in each round depending on their ADP. The reason for this is to find value in later rounds. I remove the quarterbacks and kickers to avoid strange numbers and end up with solid draft picks in round 7 and up.
When it comes to the draft I draft the player with the highest floor available as often as I can. If I end up drafting 5 wide receivers in the first 5 rounds and the player with the highest floor in round 6 is a DST I would not suggest drafting them. As Barbosa said “The code is more what you call guidelines than what you call actually rules” and that is how I view my draft guide too. It can yield very good results if you follow it in combination with some common sense.
I post all the floor and ceiling numbers for all non-rookies during the summer before draft season start so if you would like to win against your co-workers keep an eye out and cruise to a 72 % win rate team.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD