Analyzing the Top 50 Wide Receivers

With the Swedish holiday of Midsummer coming up on Friday the AFC North will be postponed to next week. Instead we will be looking at some Wide Receiver numbers today and a shorter YouTube Video on Friday. I have studied the numbers from the Top 50 Wide Receivers from last season and will present some of my findings in today’s post, I hope you find the information useful and to I will be tweeting out more of these numbers in the upcoming weeks. Let’s dig in!

This post is built around questions I asked myself before checking the numbers so I will start of each section with a question and answer that question before moving on.

Was there a difference in scoring when playing at Home vs. Away?


I asked the same question earlier this spring with the Running Backs and it turned out there was a statistically significant difference in favor of Home. In this case there was only a 0.1 point difference between the averages of Home and Road games. When running the T-Test to measure significance we get a 0.82 which means there is no statistically significant difference between them. Answer: No, we cannot prove a difference

  • Was there a difference in scoring when Winning a game vs. Loosing?


The average fantasy points scored when winning was 9.6 vs. 8.2 when loosing last year. That is a 1.4 difference. My thoughts before looking into these numbers was that Wide Receivers would score more when loosing due to Quarterbacks throwing more when behind which would lead to more opportunities for Wide Receivers. Answer: Yes, Wide Receivers score more when winning

  • How much of Wide Receivers fantasy points derives from Touchdowns?


First of I would like to say that I post their individual stats in this category on twitter and Instagram @qalled.  No one of the 50 Top Wide Receivers from last year got more than 45 % of their production from Touchdowns. Anquan Boldin tops the chart with 45 % of his points. The average is 26 %, which is only 2 % more than the Running Backs.

  • Which Factor Correlates most with Fantasy Points, Targets, Receptions or Yards?
    +1 Perfect Positive Correlation -1 Perfect Negative Correlation1
    Targets: 0.68
    Receptions: 0.66

From previous measures Targets is usually the factor that correlates most with Fantasy Points, so this result is extremely surprising. I have measured with all players over the last couple of years in the previous attempts and here only with the Top 50. That Receptions is that close to Targets is interesting. Answer: Yards has the strongest correlation with Fantasy Points 

There are more numbers focused on Division, Conference, Time of Day and Geography in the YouTube Video Here!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: bmward_2000 Brown TD Catch via photopin (license)

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