Analyzing Top Quarterbacks

I have written about Running Backs and Wide Receivers and where they found their fantasy points last year, what numbers correlate with fantasy points and if there is statistically significant differences between certain scenarios. Now it is time for the Quarterbacks! I took the Top 30 Fantasy Quarterbacks from last year, according to ESPN and complied all their data to answer my questions.

I run two different tests to answer my questions,

  1. T-Test, it measures if two samples are statistically different. Example: Is there a difference in speed between planes with two engines and planes with four. We fly 30 planes with two engines and 30 with four and measure their speed. To see if the difference is real or random we run the T-Test and if the answer is under 0.05 there is a difference.
  2. Correlation Test, it measures if two samples move in the same direction. Answers vary from +1 Perfect Positive Correlation to -1 Perfect Negative Correlation. If the answer is +1 it means that when one sample gains 1 so does the other and vice versa.

As I had with the other positions groups I had some questions before looking at the numbers. I will open every section with a question and try to answer them at the end of it. Let’s dig in!

  • Fantasy Experts talk a lot about running Quarterbacks and that gives them a safe floor. My question is then: Does points from Rushing Yards and Rushing TDs have a stronger correlation with Fantasy Points than Passing Yards and Passing TDs?

All four stats have a positive correlation with Fantasy Points, which is pretty obvious.
Rush Yards: 0.24 Pass Yards: 0.79 Rush TDs: 0.30 Pass TDs: 0.85 . Answer: No, Passing stats have a stronger correlation with Fantasy Points.
I think it is important to say here that this is for the Top 30 Quarterbacks and if you look closely there are some outliers that could be drafted as good running Quarterbacks but to take running into account on more than them is most likely not a good idea.

NFC and AFC
Quarterbacks score on average 16.6 points against NFC Teams and 16.8 against the AFC. Just with that knowledge I am fairly certain there is no statistically significant difference between them. The answer from the T-Test is a 0.396 which is not even close. I was really hoping to see something like I did with the Wide Receivers. Answer: No, there is no difference 

  • Is there a difference in Quarterback scoring when playing at Home vs. Away?

Home and Road
The Top 30 Fantasy Quarterbacks from last year score on average 1.3 points more when they play at Home vs. Away. To put that in perspective, Ben Roethlisberger scores 11.9 more points when playing at Home. That he has big of a difference compared to the other Quarterbacks are pretty incredible. The T-Test provides a 0.035 answer which means that a difference is there and statistically significant. Answer: Yes, they score more at home

  • Is there a difference in Quarterback scoring when Winning vs. Losing?

WIn and Loss.JPG

For Wide Receivers the answer was Yes, they score more when winning which surprised me. Since that answer Yes, my guess before doing the same for Quarterbacks was also Yes, that they would score more when winning. Quarterbacks score on average 17.7 fantasy points when winning and 14.9 when losing. The T-Test gives us a lower answer than 0.000. I think it is pretty interesting, I at least had the notion that losing wasn’t bad for Quarterbacks because they would throw more. Answer: Yes, Quarterbacks score Fantasy Points when Winning

As you might have noticed, this post is on a Thursday. The new off-season schedule will be Mondays and Thursdays at the website and Fridays will be for YouTube only. If you have any suggestions for numbers for me to look into I would be happy to take suggestions!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: elviskennedy Aaron Rodgers via photopin (license)


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