I wanted to start with the rankings a little earlier this year and focus more on draft value in the summer. I have crunched the numbers for my top 50 Running Backs based on their 1 game floor and will present them in three posts starting today. The numbers are drawn from the last 3 season the player played. So if a back has not played more than 2 seasons the numbers will be drawn from that.
If you have not read any of my previous rankings you might wonder why I have a back that finished top 6 last year at rank 31. It is a valid question and I wonder the same, but the numbers don’t lie. The floor is simply the least amount of points I expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won’t reach this number, so I am fairly sure to get this amount of points ever week. I will have ceiling rankings and ppr later on. Let’s dig in!
I am guessing that you would have noticed Freeman and Blount even if I hadn’t marked them. Having them this low is because they have too many games with almost no fantasy points at all. If you compare them to DeMarco Murray who finished top 5 last year he will reach a top 10 floor ranking for 2017. Murray is usually a safe bet to put an OK fantasy day every time he suits up.
Freeman and Coleman affects each others rankings. As long as Coleman can take over a game so Freeman ends with a big zero, Freeman will never rise in my Floor rankings. Freeman’s ceilings is impressive so if he falls to the 3rd-4th round I’m picking him, earlier than that, no thank you.
When a Running Back ranks this low on the floor rankings he will not be focused in the earlier rounds instead his ceilings will have to be interesting enough on its own to get drafted.
Another player I find interesting down here is Carlos Hyde. He is almost in the same situation as Freeman with a high ceiling but some duds here and there to get his floor down. I have never been a big Hyde fan and this gets me even less interested in him. I have not looked at their ceilings yet but I guess that he will end up in the mid 20’s which is not that bad but not that good either.
Next week I will look closer at the 30-16 and top 15 Running Backs based on Floors. Tomorrow I have a YouTube Video coming up looking at how four of the biggest wide receivers movements will affect their fantasy value so keep an eye out for that! You can find “Tony Romo as a Texan” below.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD