I have focused on Wide Receivers and Quarterback fits for the off-season so far but today I will be looking at a Running Back that changed team. I have looked at all of Latavius Murray’s run plays over the last three years to find where he is most productive and where he usually sees the most work. I have done the same with the Vikings to the compare with Murray and see if he can potentially improve their running game, or if he’s not the greatest fit. Let’s dig in!
First I need to share the areas I have divided the run plays in. I have 7 zones that a back can potentially run through, outside the Left TE (LE), outside the Left Tackle (LT), Outside the Left Guard (LG) Between a Guard and the Center (M) and the same for the right side.
Murray’s best zone to run in is outside the Left Tackle with 6.5 yards per carry over the last three years. That is by far his best area but he has only had 9 % of his runs there, 3rd fewest attempts. Looking below you can see the YPC for the Vikings over the last three years, and I really think that Murray can improve the running outside the Left Tackle where they have 10 % of all their run plays. I am not too afraid of the 2.4 in the LG zone, because the Vikings have only called 13 % of the plays there, might even go down a little bit if they see the combination of their worst with Murray’s worst.
Looking at the production from the different downs, we see that Murray’s best down is second followed by first. His worst one is fourth down, I think this is something the Vikings will notice since that is actually their most production down. Other than that I think Murray will see similar YPC from first to third down, he might lose a little bit on second downs and gain some on third but I have a hard time seeing him go from 3 YPC to over 6 on fourth down.
After looking at these numbers I think that Murray’s YPC will go down just a little bit. There are some stats that match with each other and some that really don’t match at all. For instance I think that Murray’s running outside the Left Tackle will continue to be a good spot for him while all the runs to the right will be less successful than previously. Analyzing the YPC from the different Downs, it will most likely stay the same on first down but lose some on second and gain some on third.
On Thursday I will be finishing out the Running Back Floor Rankings with Top 15-1. If you would like to see any specific numbers on the website you can tweet me @qalled
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD