Finally made it to the top guys but before I dig into the players I would like to talk a little bit about what the rankings mean. So when I run numbers I do it from the last three years and I do not take injuries and team situation in consideration when doing the numbers. That are things I will leave up to you. We all have a different view on risk. To take a school example, I am willing to pay 10 now for the chance to earn 100 later and as worst case get 30, while you are willing to pay 20 for the chance to earn 100 later but you might end up with 5. That means that I am more risk avert than you are. That is why I don’t add injury or team questions in my rankings, I only provide you with the numbers and let you decide what to do with them.
As said before all numbers are based on the last three years. In the case a player has not been in the league that long their floor number will be based on all their games. The floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player from any given game. It has a 16 % risk of not being reached. Let’s dig in!
* Team or Health Question
** Questionable Sample Size
I thought Gurley had a really good rookie year and I was questioning him due to his sample size last year and he only had a 6.7 floor and was 7th on my ranking last year. Elliott’s floor is incredibly high, but hey, since the floor is that high I am OK with him not reaching it since he might still have the highest.
The most surprising player this high for me is Mark Ingram! I had him ranked as my 18th Running Back based on floors last year. Him landing at the 7th spot is amazing, especially since Jordan Howard and Ezekiel Elliott was not ranked last year. Ingram is someone I will be looking to grab if the draft price isn’t too high.
I really liked DeMarco Murray last year, he was ranked 3rd last year too. I think other people were less high on him last year so I got a lot of value from him. Since Derrick Henry might affect his value even in 2017 I think we can get good value from Murray again.
Before running the numbers I thought that David Johnson would rank higher, but he is affected by 2015’s numbers. If you remove 2015, his floor would be 11.3 and he would rank just behind Elliott. When I do the final rankings I will try to work out a fair way to show this.
Tomorrow I will publish a YouTube Video looking at the JETS wide receivers and how they will be affected by the Quarterback change.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD