Welcome to another post in this Free Agency series! Today I have looked at the running and passing plays for Eddie Lacy for the last three years and compare them with the Seahawks to find some synergies.
Before we get started, I just wanna go through the zones and areas I have divided the field in so you can follow along with the numbers.
First, I have 7 zones that a back can potentially run through, outside the Left TE (LE), outside the Left Tackle (LT), Outside the Left Guard (LG) Between a Guard and the Center (M) and the same for the right side.
Secondly, I have 3 areas where you can pass a ball to a running back in. Usually I have 6 areas but seeing as Lacy never has gotten a pass deep only have 3 over the last three years I did not feel it was necessary to showcase them here. The areas are, Short Left, Short Middle and Short Right. From the line of scrimmage down 15 yards and the hash-marks as dividers. Let’s dig in!
Yards Per Carry
Out of the seven running zones Lacy upgrades the Seahawks in three, LG, LT and RG. His yards per carry is an improvement to what the Seahawks have seen from their running over the last three years. However, we also see that his production is worse in four zones, the worst one being the RE, with a 0.9 negative difference. To further analyze this let’s take a look at how often the Seahawks run in these zones and compare it to Lazy.
Percentage of Plays Run per Zone
So in the three zones Lacy was an upgrade we see a Good Fit at LG, Really Good at LT and Really Good at RG. That means that Lacy is used to run a comparable amount of his plays in the same way as the Seahawks. Where he does not fit in is the Middle zone where he usually only sees 18 % of his while the Seahawks likes to run more of a third of their runs there, it is also Lacy’s worst YPC zone and that is why it receives a Really Bad. I am a little bit concerned about this but since the Upgrade zones also have Good or Really Good fits I am willing to overlook this somewhat.
Yards Per Carry per Down
After looking at YPC depending on down, I can see Lacy staying roughly the same as he did in Green Bay. He might gain a few yards more on third downs while loosing a little bit on fourth. When looking at this chart I look more at how their trends and less on how they fit. The upgrades are so small on first and second while third and fourth cancel each other out.
Yards Per Reception
Lacy has been a decent receiving back, he gains far more YPR than the Seahawks have seen over the last three years on passes thrown to the Short Right area. The other two zones are Comparable. But as we did with the Running, we need to look at how often they target the different areas to know how well it fits.
Percentage of Throws per Zone
The Seahawks prefer to throw it to the Short Left, a zone Lacy is used to see most of his targets to. The reason I only give it a Good Fit ranking is due to the disparity and the reasoning behind the OK Fit on Short Middle will be discussed momentarily. I wanna talk about the Short Right instead. It is the second most targeted zone with 39 %. Lacy is only used to see 32 % of his throws there, if that goes up he could potentially increase the Seahawks YPR in that zone, that could be a benefit not just for him but for Russell Wilson as well!
Percentage of Yards Gained per Zone
So the Short Middle, it had an OK Fit above and here too. The reason is that the Seahawks are used to get 17 % of their yards from the area from 17 % of their targets, perfect distribution. Lacy gets 29 % of yards from 33 % of targets, pretty close. I could have put it as a bad fit but with those numbers matching up pretty well I think we can see his staying roughly the same on those targets next year too!
Yards Per Reception per Down
This is a tricky one, it goes up and down with the only down sticking out is second. I think Lacy can increase the Seahawks numbers there just a little bit. All in all they match pretty well, and on the reception side I think Lacy will help them get better.
In conclusion: If Lacy can have similar production to what he has been able to do when he’s healthy I think he will be an upgrade from what the Seahawks have seen over the last 3 years. He fits pretty well with what they want to do and his numbers support a little bit better production. If we can figure out what the Seahawks wants to do at Running Back and Lacy’s health (read weight) I think he can bring a ton of value to your fantasy team in 2017!
Do you want more Free Agency analysis? Check out Brandin Cooks & Patriots fit, Latavius Murray & Vikings fit or any of the Romo Videos on my YouTube Channel! You can also scroll down for a look at the JETS Wide Receiver situation!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD