Hello and welcome! Today I am going to change it up a little bit. Instead of doing a Free Agent Signing & Team Fit post I will focus on the Score Projection for next year. It is similar to the Fit posts but more focus on the actual Fantasy Points we can expect from the player. Let’s dig in!
I have developed some interesting numbers and ways to project yards and touchdowns when a player changes team based on the different amount of targets the player might see. I have put Terrelle Pryor through these numbers for three different amount of targets to predict his next season. I have done the projections for 110, 116 and 140 targets. The reason behind these targets is the Redskins number one Receiver’s targets from 2015 and 2016 while Terrelle Pryor saw 140 in 2016.
To put these numbers in relation to what he produced last year. Pryor had 1007 yards on 140 targets in 2016 so getting 1030 is not the biggest of improvements. This is however not adjusted for the change of Quarterback Accuracy. It is, however, a good place to start since we get a picture of how Pryor fits with the Redskins. He would have gained more yards playing in the Redskins system compared to the Browns if we assume the same QB played for the two teams.
Adjusting for Cousins superior accuracy compared to RG3, Kessler, and McCown, Pryor will most likely outperform his 2016 season even if he goes down to 116 targets. The most interesting Zone with this is the Deep Left. With Cousins being so much more accurate in that Zone that Pryor increases his yards gained by at least 80 yards. Adjusting for Cousins gets me very excited and I am changing my opinion from one of my previous YouTube Videos where I was not too high on him.
Here is where it gets a little worrying. He has never caught a Touchdown outside the Short Right Zone. I won’t even show the chart with the Deep Zones Touchdowns since there are none. Seeing as this is a pretty extreme trend I believe it has a chance to change so it is very difficult to project how many touchdowns Pryor could produce as a Redskin.
The three final projections here show a pretty good fantasy year for Pryor in Washington. He has a chance for a top year if he can get almost as many targets as he got last year and a similar year as last if he loses around 30 targets. With that in mind, I strongly believe you can draft Pryor and feel safe that he will at least give you the same as he did last year. To put this projected production in relation to other receivers, you can see below where he would have finished last year with these numbers.
I am really hyped when it comes to Pryor, are you? Tweet me @qalled and let me know what you think, are these more or less of what you think he will produce?
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD