With the feedback I have received from the previous Score Projections posts I decided to keep doing it for some more players. But, on Friday I start a new Score Projection series that will feature the top fantasy players from one team each week and will go on for, you guessed it, 32 weeks. I ran a poll yesterday on what team to start with and the winner was the Atlanta Falcons, so on Friday, you will get season projections for Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper. I will keep putting polls up so you get the opportunity to influence the order of the projections and I hope/know (getting cocky) you will like it!
Today, I have crunched the numbers for DeSean Jackson and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I have looked at Jackson’s previous three years and analyzed his receiving patterns and put them in relation to Winston’s two years in the league. If you’re not familiar with how I divide the field to increase the accuracy of the projection you can check out Brandin Cooks if you would like to read or Alshon Jeffery if you prefer it in video format. Let’s dig in!
Before we start I would like to ask you to comment below or tweet @qalled where you see Jackson finishing in 2017 and what round you could see yourself draft him.
Let’s dig in!
First of let’s discuss the reasoning behind the chosen targets. Since Jameis Winston arrived in Tampa he has targeted Mike Evans with the majority of his passes and only thrown around 70 targets to his second receiver, so that is the first column. 90 is close to his average of the last four years and won’t steal too many targets from Evans. The 110 targets, is the ceiling. Jackson has not seen over 100 over the last three years and I don’t think he can get that many in Tampa either so this is the best case scenario for him.
When looking at the yards we see that he is going to gain most of his yards from the Short Middle zone and a fair bit from the deeper three, in fact, a lot more than Pryor from last week, but no surprise there.
Adjusting for the change from Cousins to Winston Jackson’s yards sees an increase from the previous chart. To make the final projection these two projections will be combined to get the most accurate fantasy points projection for next year. The yards for 90 targets is pretty similar to what he is used to producing, but it might be a little bit high on targets.
With the touchdown numbers being this low I chose to not showcase all the charts and combine them into one smaller one. But taking the amount of times the Bucs throw to the deep zones and Jackson’s targets catch rate on those passes he won’t see that many more touchdowns I am afraid of. 1 touchdown is a little bit on the low side but somewhere around 2 +- 1 is a fair projection.
To continue with what I said just above, 2 touchdowns +- 1 leads to an uneven number when looking at FFPs from TDs. 117 points would be a little lower than last year but in this projection, he sees 10 fewer targets. With that in mind, I think you can get the same points from Jackson that you got last year.
I believe the span from 92 to 142 fantasy points is good for where Jackson is in his career right now and with the limited amount of targets there is to get in Tampa.
In conclusion: Jackson has the chance to finish in the top 20 wide receivers as his best projection if he can get a good amount of targets that I don’t see happening. I lean towards somewhere around 90 with a standard finish somewhere in the high 20s to middle 30s.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD