First Wednesday post in a while and the first post in a series that will go on for the next 16 weeks! I have tweaked my Score Projection I use for players that change team and used to project the fantasy points for the top players for all the 32 NFL teams. In case you missed the first Video in this series click here for the Atlanta Falcons. I am actually not going to say too much more. Let’s dig in!
To begin this series and also have something to refer back to in future posts I will explain how I arrive at the projections.
To make the projections we need a couple of stats that we can work from. First we need to know how many pass attempts the team in question will have in 2017 and to whom those targets will go to. Secondly we need to know how many rush attempts the will have in 2017 and who will get those carries.
To arrive at the pass attempts and rush attempts I have analyzed numbers from the last two years for the team in questions opponents for 2017. To arrive at who will get the targets and carries I have look at the last three years for the team in question and analyzed how they usually divide their opportunities.
After I have these numbers I divide them up on the players, depending on the team I will present numbers for the Quarterback, 1-2 Running Backs, 1-3 Wide Receivers and 1 Tight End. I unfortunately don’t have a formula to calculate kickers and DSTs production over a whole season. For Rookies I do not do any projection outside of amount of targets and carries.
To get the players tendencies and how they perform with these opportunities I have analyzed all their plays from the last three years, or all their plays in the case they have not played three years yet.
To get a visual, let’s take a look at Cam Newton’s Score Projection.
Cam get’s his points from these four categories. Interceptions are deducted from the Total Fantasy Points. These points come from 530 drop backs and 91 rush attempts including kneel downs. Looking at the stats you can figure out how many yards he will pass for and rush for so I won’t talk about that, but we know have a picture of how many pass attempts we have to work with so let’s look at the receivers.
These stats are calculated from the amount of passes the Panther’s usually throw to their Wide Receiver 1, 2 and Tight End 1. For instance, Devin Funchess get’s the amount of targets that would have gone to Ted Ginn Jr. if he still was a Panther. The receptions are calculated from their ability to catch balls in different situations and where Cam usually throws the ball.
For Running Back I have of course both Rushing and Receiving as stats. As I said before, the amount of players I will showcase for each position depends on the team. So for the Panthers, the only one I felt good about creating numbers for was Stewart since they drafted McCaffrey. McCaffrey, if you look a little further down get’s a Rush Attempts and Target projection as RB2 and WR4. Back to Stewart we see that he does not get too many receptions and I am worried about drafting him with a projected 112 points, which would have landed him at RB 30 in 2016.
I don’t want to project points for the Rookies since I have no numbers to base the projection on and I never make a baseless projection.
I hope you like this first post, in the future I will discuss the players more and present more numbers, but I felt like a descriptive first post was the way to go. If you have any questions about the calculations please comment below or hit me up on twitter @qalled I am more than happy to discuss them further.
I will put up a YouTube Video on Friday with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Score Projection before I dig into the NFC East next week!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD