Welcome to another CSD Score Projection post. I know that last week it dragged on for a bit due to going through the calculations for the Projections. So today I want to jump right in and start of by looking at Kirk Cousins. If you want to know more about the calculations behind the numbers click here! Let’s dig in!
Cousins score 300.7 Fantasy Points last year. My projection is extremely close to that with 305.7. The biggest difference I have is the Touchdowns, with him passing for 2-3 more than last year but running for 1 less. I also have him reaching over the 5000 yard mark for the first time in his career. Interception has been deducted from the Total Fantasy Points and I have him projected for 14-15 over the season.
I have discussed Terrelle Pryor a lot this off-season and I can’t promise this will be the last time but I hope so. With the previous post focusing on Pryor’s own abilities I have in this one taken the Redskins target share and how often they most likely will pass the ball next year into account. This has led me to Pryor catching 81 balls on 112 targets. With this he has the chance to be a Top 15 receiver even with the huge drop of in targets when we account for Cousins abilities.
For all Crowder fans I am sad to say that I think he will take a big step back. When analyzing his target share and his trends he just can’t reach that amount of Touchdowns again. My projection might be a little too low on him but when placing him as their Wide Receiver 2 does not yield him more targets than 93 it will be difficult to score that much more.
I had a hard time placing Perine and Jones after Fat Rob so I decided not to include Jones here. Instead both of them will be featured a little bit below this part. Next time I have a difficult time placing a player as RB1-2 or 3 or similarly I will put out a poll on twitter and let y’all decide! Looking at Rob Kelley as their number one Running Back with 154.3 points I think he has the chance to be a Top 20 Running Back. That is not that bad but it of course assumes he can stay healthy and be their go to guy. It does not however assume that he will get all the opportunities because the Redskins only tend to give their RB1 a little bit under 50 % of all carries so there is still a lot to be had by the other guys.
Since I don’t have numbers to support any score projections I will just post their projected Targets and Carries and let you know that this has Matt Jones as RB2 and Samaje Perine as RB3. “Rest” is all other players that are difficult to pinpoint right now but combined will have an impact on the team and especially help Cousins to his 5000 yards.
To provide you with as much information possible thought adding a table of the full Target Share would be good. These are the numbers that I have been working with to decide how many targets each player gets. They derive from the Redskins tendencies over the last three years.
I hope you enjoy these bigger Score Projection posts! On Friday I’ll be looking at the Dallas Cowboys on the YouTube channel so keep an eye out. You can subscribe to the YouTube channel by clicking here, so you never have to miss a Video!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD