“Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning.” – Benjamin Franklin. I thought I would start of this Wednesday post with a quote. I have listened evaluated the last couple of Score Projection posts and decided to scrap the Wednesday portion of that series and focus only on the Video portion of it. To replace it I am trying out a new Series I call “Market Share Analysis”. Please let me know if you like this new concept, every comment, negative or positive helps me to improve the site and provide more relevant content.
The idea behind these posts are to look at three teams from a given division before digging deeper into the fourth team the Friday that comes after. The numbers derive from the 2017 opponents last two years and from the team in questions last three. The numbers have been put in relation to each other to arrive at a projected number for Drop Backs and Rush Attempts. These two stats will later be divided up on different players to get an idea of how their Market Share will most likely look in 2017. Let’s dig in!
To explain the numbers a little bit more it is good to start of with an example. The first team today is the Denver Broncos. I view them as having at least two Wide Receivers with Fantasy Value and potentially three Running Backs that you will at least have interest in and a Tight End you might want to stream. By taking their passing trends from their Broncos last three years I get an expected Market Share for the Targets that I from now on will call Target Share. I do the same for their running trends and get an expected Market Share for Carries that I now will call Carry Share.
With the information from the first charts I put together a table like the one above with the players I predict will have these roles in 2017. You can of course shuffle the players around if you believe that I have predicted the wrong player for a position. This is likely to happen since there are 32 teams and depth charts will get changed before and during the season. I believe that Denver’s Target Share is pretty easy to predict while the Carry Share can be changed in big ways.
If the Broncos Carry Share was difficult to predict the Chargers’ Target Share is a room filled with trap doors. I suggest that you keep the Projected Targets from the third column in mind when drafting the Wide Receivers from the Chargers, this can get shuffled around two-three times before the season even start. Just imagine all the off-season story-lines that can happen! “Keenan Allen has never looked better”, “Mike Williams is the new Julio Jones”, “Henry will overtake Gates in 2017”. I try to stay away from stories like this to keep my numbers unbiased, question everything!
Last thing to talk about in this post is Tyreek Hill. He is namely the first Wide Receiver to get a Carry Share and a Projected Carry number. Most Wide Receiver see so few carries that I don’t gain enough fantasy value compared to the time it takes to do it for every player. However, some Receivers like Tyreek Hill and Tavon Austin has the running as a big part of their game that they get a Carry Share number.
Dedicated to: “How can I be a spear carrier without my spear?”
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD