Brand new week with new challenges and possibilities! I thought what is more interesting to write about, Running Backs or DSTs? The easy answer was of course Running Backs so here we are, moving away from the Floor Rankings and diving right into the Ceiling Rankings! If you have read a lot of my work before and feel comfortable with how I calculate and view the floor you can scroll down past the Raiders Video and get right into it, otherwise have a look at the paragraph below for an introduction. Let’s dig in!
My Ceiling Rankings derive from a player’s performance over the last three years or all the games the player has played in the league. The Ceiling is the most amount of points I can expect a player to have on a given week. For instance, I don’t expect Charles Sims to score over 11.6 Fantasy Points on even on his best day. There is always a possibility that a player will out-score the Ceiling but, there is only a 16 % chance that it will happen for every player, subsequently there is a 84 % chance that he will score below the Ceiling. The more games a player has played the more accurate the Ceiling is. This of course fluctuates a little bit but as examples both Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy only outscored their Ceiling 26 % of their games last year. It is important to note that the 16 % chance is for every game, not over the course of the season. Last thing, Rookies does not get a Ceiling, they have not played a single game and there are analysts with more knowledge about them than me.
The Ceilings Rankings for the low-end Running Backs is one of the most interesting Rankings all year to me! It’s here you can find value guys that can give you great upside over for a week or a guy that you see has potential but costs virtually nothing. Last year I used a 6th round pick for Giovani Bernard who ranked 12th on the Floor Rankings and 39th on the Ceiling Rankings. That combination for that price to me is perfect, that he was going to be injured is hard to predict but he was a guy I was happy with at that spot.
Seeing Ameer Abdullah and Zach Zenner next to each other here is something to keep in mind. Abdullah is far ahead of Zenner in the Floor Rankings with 1.7 vs. 0 but Zenner could be a guy to pick up and stash if Abdullah gets hurt again. Knowing that both of them has roughly the same Ceiling gives you a sense of security that they could be almost equal if they are the number one guy.
The same can almost be said for Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. I had Forte extremely high on my Floor Rankings last year and he is still Top 10 but on the Ceiling Rankings he just does not cut it anymore. If I am going to draft Forte it will later on in the Draft and try to handcuff him with Powell. That Powell is 3 Points after Forte in the Ceiling Rankings is a little bit disturbing so I am not too high on this strategy. I like to match the numbers better like I talked about with Abdullah and Zenner, if that is possible of course.
I could talk about Mike Gillislee but I am actually one of the people trying to stop this hype train. I don’t enjoy the off-season hype trains where people don’t explain how high they are on a certain player and talk about him as a second round pick.
Derrick Henry will get a more in-depth look on Friday on the YouTube Channel so keep an eye out for that.
If you would like to get more info on Tevin Coleman and what my numbers predict for him click Here!
For full Floor Rankings click Here!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD