Hello and welcome to another Market Share Analysis post. On Friday the new YouTube Video graphics go live with the Tennessee Titans so today is a good day to look at the rest of the AFC South. The division was low-key everyone’s darling last off-season especially the Jaguars but they have been a little less buzz this year. I really hope the AFC South can rise again and be a fun division to watch next year and especially a division where we can get some good fantasy value from.
The idea behind these posts are to look at three teams from a given division before digging deeper into the fourth team the Friday that comes after. The numbers derive from the 2017 opponents last two years and from the team in questions last three. The numbers have been put in relation to each other to arrive at a projected number for Drop Backs and Rush Attempts. These two stats will later be divided up on different players to get an idea of how their Market Share will most likely look in 2017. If you want more information I have examples for the AFC West Here. Let’s dig in!
The Colts have a pretty interesting opportunity pool with massive targets going to the number one Wide Receiver then a steady decline for ever step we take. Some teams have a more even distribution between the second to fourth guy, one example the Cardinals that we will look at next week. For the Running Back the inconvenient truth seems most of the passes and targets.
All projection are for full health and 16 games and for one player that is especially important to keep in mind, Donte Moncrief. He has had a lot of issues with his health and touchdown dependency but if he can stay healthy he has the chance to get up to 84 targets next year and provide decent production. I put Kamar Aiken as their fourth guy for now and I think it will be fun to watch how that story-line will move on over the summer.
The Jaguars spread it out pretty evenly among their Running Backs both when it comes to targets and carries. The disparity between RB1 and RB3 is pretty big but when you just go one step from one guy to the next it is not that big, especially when looking at the targets.
Looking at how the Jaguars have treated their number one back over the last years it seems unlikely that we will see a Zeke Elliott situation where Fournette just gets everything. They will use him a ton but I don’t think he’ll be run’d into the ground. To further look behind the low rushing numbers, we got to think that it is due to being behind a lot and throwing all the time. That might not change too much but be wary.
Targets targets and more targets for the number one and two Wide Receiver. There is no mathematical reason for not believing that this will continue! For the Running Backs we can say the same, they will feature their number one guy until he can’t run no more.
The top two seems pretty easy to predict but the Texans is a difficult team to rely on numbers for. They change their personality with the Quarterback and it is hard to tell if Hopkins can create points worthy of 165 targets with Savage (is he real?) and Watson. I am actually a little bit excited to take a shot at Will Fuller. With 108 targets and a more accurate Quarterback than Brock Osweiler (basically everyone) I think I can get some sneaky good value out of him.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD