The NFC West was not one of the most exciting divisions last year with the Cardinals under performing, the 49ers and Rams being terrible and the Seahawks being in a class of their own, even with Russell Wilson injured for plenty of games. However, for fantasy football the division is far from boring, it boasts a ton of high-profile fantasy players and many that leads to many arguments, is Carlos Hyde’s situation amazing, is Doug Baldwin a nr:1 Receiver and can Todd Gurley be good again? I won’t try to answer these questions in this post but I will try to shed a light on their opportunities going into 2017.
The idea behind these posts are to look at three teams from a given division before digging deeper into the fourth team the Friday that comes after. The numbers derive from the 2017 opponents last two years and from the team in questions last three. The numbers have been put in relation to each other to arrive at a projected number for Drop Backs and Rush Attempts. These two stats will later be divided up on different players to get an idea of how their Market Share will most likely look in 2017. If you want more information I have examples for the AFC West Here. Let’s dig in!
The Rams are a team that does not consist of fantasy studs, they however are intriguing in their own way. They had Todd Gurley that might get back to being good again, it is hard to argue that his production won’t be better with the amount of carries he is set to get in 2017. The rest of the team is filled with gadget players like Tavon Austin (one of the few Wide Receivers I do Share of Carries for) and Lance Dunbar, the elusive pass catching back from Dallas. It will be interesting to hear how Cooper Kupp is progression during training camp to get a clearer view how they will use him. Kupp is a guy I have a chance of getting in a rookie draft where I pick late and has a decent situation already in his first year.
I highly suggest that you play with these numbers yourself if you feel like having Lacy as the number one Running Back. You can always move the players around if you have a different opinion on how the roster will be utilized than me. But, I see the three main guys on the team, excluding Russell Wilson of course, being Baldwin, Lacy and Graham. As long as Graham is healthy he will see around 80 targets and provide nice fantasy numbers. Lacy’s projected 165 carries is nothing to write home about and seeing as we know very little on who’s going to be the number one guy I will not be looking to draft him. Baldwin with 22% of all targets only gets up to 113 projected targets, that is not a huge amount for a number one Wide Receiver and it turns me away from him. He usually gets a ton of points from a limited amount of games and then perform poorly in the majority, not the kind of player I like on my team.
127 projected targets for Garcon is something to keep in mind. He is a pretty good Wide Receiver and with that amount of opportunity he opens my eyes. His overall ADP is right now 92, so taking a flyer on him in the 9th or 10th round is definitely something to consider. The topic that gets the most attention though is Carlos Hyde. I actually have him getting fewer carries than last year with 185 to 217. The 49ers trends does not suggest that his carries will rise. This is however trends that does not include Kyle Shanahan. With all the buzz about Shanahan personally drafting Joe Williams I am going to keep away from Hyde for a while before we see a couple of pre-season games with Joe Williams Running.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD