NFC North Market Share Analysis

We are rapidly moving closer to the start of the season as June is almost halfway over. In today’s post we will move our eyes to the North and look at three teams from the NFC. The Lions, Bears and Vikings are maybe not the flashy:st fantasy teams but they do have some really interesting situations with their receiving corps. I have projected a rookie, a second year player and a third year player in this post but I would like to make it known that you can change around the players to your liking. This is just to visualize how the teams might be set up.

The idea behind these posts are to look at three teams from a given division before digging deeper into the fourth team the Friday that comes after. The numbers derive from the 2017 opponents last two years and from the team in question’s last three. The numbers have been put in relation to each other to arrive at a projected number for Drop Backs and Rush Attempts. These two stats will later be divided up on different players to get an idea of how their Market Share will most likely look in 2017. If you want more information I have examples for the AFC West Here. Let’s dig in!

BearsBears2

This may be one of the most lack-luster receiving groups in all of the NFL. Not even the amount of targets gets me going and not knowing how the Quarterback situation is going to pan out makes me shy away from all of the Receivers in Chicago.
Jordan Howard however has an amazing situation with almost David Johnson Market Share numbers (DJ: 69 % of Carries & 15 % Targets). His overall ADP right now is #12 which for a second year Running Back not playing for the Cowboys, Raiders or Titans is hard for me to justify. I prefer the safety of a more established fantasy performer, remember Todd Gurley.

Lions.JPG
Lions2

The Lions have one of the more interesting situations. Marvin Jones was supposed to come in as the number one guy last year and had a couple of amazing games until it was obvious that he could not keep that going and Tate took the reins. With the addition of Kenny Golladay, the corps is hard to evaluate. The usually target their first and second Receiver a lot more than their third option so Golladay might not be featured that much in his first year, but seeing as his ADP puts him at WR #92 I would not mind throwing a dart at him and see what we land on. If you want a Tight End that gives you around 3-5 points each week, draft Eric Ebron and for the Running Backs in Detroit there is so much hot takes out there that I will just leave it at, Abdullah is the RB 1 until proven otherwise.

Vikings
Vikings2

With the smallest Opportunity Pool in the NFC North the Vikings players have a smaller sample to work with but we saw what both Thielen and Diggs could do last year so I am not too worried. The hot take of the day is that I have Treadwell as the Vikings third Receiver with 12 % of all targets. He is sort of in the same boat as Golladay with an overall ADP of #272 which if he can be the third guy in Minnesota is not too bad. He might be a total bust or he might just have needed a year to adapt to the NFL but seeing as he demand no draft capital I am willing to take a shot at him. For the Running Backs I have Murray as their number one guy to start the season. This of course might change later on but for now I will keep it like this and if something happens in the pre-season I will evaluate the placement.

Do you think I have totally messed up the placement of a player or forgot someone completely? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @qalled

On Friday the Packers will be featured in this week’s Score Projection Video so make sure to keep an eye out at 4pm eastern.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: mistyj26 Detroit Lions 2014 via photopin (license)


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