I am back from the Swedish country-side after a wonderful Midsummer celebration that became amazingly authentic with the rain eventually starting to fall. With the three-day weekend being over we are back to our regular schedule with today’s rankings, Wednesday’s Market Share Analysis for the AFC North and Score Projection Video featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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I have previously discussed the Ceiling stat in-depth so if you would like to learn more about the it click Here! Let’s dig in!
Firstly I would like to get your attention to the Raiders Receivers. Crabtree had a higher Floor but Cooper has the higher Ceiling. So doing a full comparison is what we need to decide who is the best value of the two.
1. Amari Cooper – Floor: 2.1 Ceiling: 15.2 Score Projection: 136 Overall ADP: 23
2. Michael Crabtree – Floor: 2.3 Ceiling: 13.7 Score Projection: 136.6 Overall ADP: 49
The Floor is extremely close and in this instance you could pick the one that You feel the best about. Sometimes it is better for your own stomach to just pick the one you have a feeling about but for me Crabtree is now heavily favored due to my tendencies to be risk averse. If we were looking to pick between these players later on in the draft Cooper’s Ceiling would for me be the deciding factor due to the fact that I usually look for upside later on. For a full comparison the 0.2 lead for Crabtree and 1.5 for Cooper is pretty much even Steven. The Score Projection is also extremely tight with Crabtree seeing more targets and receptions so in PPR or 0.5 PPR I would heavily lean towards him again. The ADP is what decides it for me, if I knew I could get Crabtree for pick 49 in the draft and expect roughly the same as for Cooper I would not spend the 23rd Overall for Cooper. I could however spend a little later pick and perhaps draft both of them.
Next guy I would like to highlight is Jordan Matthews. His Overall ADP right now is 117 and just gets into the top 30 Ceiling for Wide Receivers. When you look at the guys around him and their ADP you see that his ADP is just way too high compared to the others. Hurns – 199 and Tyrell Williams – 164. With the addition of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith it is also difficult to predict how their passing game will feature Matthews. I realize that can be said for Tyrell Williams as well, but then drafting him almost 50 picks later makes a lot more sense!
The last player is Terrelle Pryor. With a Ceiling similar to that of Michael Crabtree and with an Overall ADP of 52, he is a player I am willing to take a shot at in the fifth round of a ten team league. My logic here is that you can get similar production from Crabtree as you can get with Cooper and he’s worth a top 20 pick, and you can get similar production from Pryor to that one of Crabtree. That can mean that you potentially can get top 25 value from a player that you drafted with the 52nd overall pick. Skipping Cooper earlier in the draft and going for a Running Back while getting at least one of these other two can be a valid strategy.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD