Today we are staying in the North and looking at the Bengals, the Browns and the Ravens. There are a lot of uncertainty when it comes to these teams. Who will be the lead back in Cincinnati and Baltimore, who will be the number one Receiver in Baltimore and are the Browns relevant at all? Using the Market Share to deepen your knowledge how these teams usually distribute the ball is a good way to start, even though it is difficult to know for a certainty the answer to all these questions. Remember that You can change the roles of the players and keep the allocated number to the position.
The idea behind these posts are to look at three teams from a given division before digging deeper into the fourth team the Friday that comes after. The numbers derive from the 2017 opponents last two years and from the team in question’s last three. The numbers have been put in relation to each other to arrive at a projected number for Drop Backs and Rush Attempts. These two stats will later be divided up on different players to get an idea of how their Market Share will most likely look in 2017. If you want more information I have examples for the AFC West Here. Let’s dig in!
Personally I would have hoped to see a few more drop backs for the Bengals. With a 23 % Target Share for A.J. Green a few more Projected Targets would have made me more comfortable in drafting him. Seeing as they like to target their number 2 guys both for Wide Receivers and Running Backs Green looses some value. On another team he probably could expect more. It may of course also be due to his tendencies to get hurt that the have limited his targets. Last time he played 16 games he had 132, so 122 is not too far behind that.
The backfield is one of the hardest to project so please take this one with a pinch of salt and as always feel free to move the players around to your liking! I put them in this order with the help from twitter but I can easily see it change during the course of the season.
The most exciting team in the league… Crowell to me is the only player even worth looking at. You only start one Tight End so Njoku is out of the question, Britt is new and we have no idea how the QB situation will look and Corey Coleman might not get enough targets to be viable. If reports comes out stating Coleman is the number one guy and he shows that in the pre-season with a decent rapport with their starting Quarterback he could get a second look from me.
The amount of carries and targets projected for Terrance West is just too good to be true. Is Overall ADP right now is 146, but with a potential workload this big I am getting excited! I will try to get more information on how he’s looking to make sure he will be taking on the starting role come the season and monitor his ADP but for now he has my full attention.
For the Receivers I hated that Maclin went here. I was excited to draft at least one of Wallace and Perriman and see them get hammered with targets but with the addition of Maclin that plan went out the window. Instead Maclin will be the guy I will look to out of these three. Maclin’s Overall ADP is right now 122 and with over 121 targets that is a steal. Hopefully we will get more information on how they view him in Baltimore before the season start, but he skyrocketed on my watch-list.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD