Welcome to the last standard scoring Receiver ranking before the season starts. There will be one more post that will focus on Receivers, that one will be focusing on PPR and will not be a series, it will only be a single post and will be posted here in around three weeks. Today I will focus more on the later guys on the list since it is there you can find the value in terms of draft capital. On Wednesday the AFC East will see their Market Share Analysis and the Dolphins will get their full Score Projection on Friday.
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I have previously discussed the Ceiling stat in-depth so if you would like to learn more about the it click Here! Let’s dig in!
The top 3 guys are not as fun to discuss as the one following them. It seems like everyone has agreed that all drafts have to be the top 3 Running Backs followed by the top 3 Wide Receivers so it is actually after that the real fun begin. I discussed Nelson, Green, Dez and Michael Thomas in-depth on the YouTube video from last week so let’s move passed them too.
@NickFaber1229 opened my eyes this weekend to Demaryius Thomas. I have not been a big fan of him over the years but with this information he sky-rocketed on my watch list! First, the stats from Nick, ” 5 straight years of 1,000+ yards and 5+ TDs.. more experience from his QBs… ” So we know sort of what to expect from a season perspective, what about a single game? Well this is where the rankings above come in. We cannot expect to get more than 17.2 fantasy points from DT in any game. The percentage to score this is of course for any game, so for instance, he can score 17.2 one week and score 17.2 next week again. The seasonal Ceiling is not impacted week to week, the weekly projections will be a different beast and will show up on the website after Week 4, but back to DT. So, he is easily more draft-able than DeAndre Hopkins, seeing as his Ceiling is higher and he’s cheaper. You can also click the link down below and see that DT’s Floor is higher than Nuk’s. After that we see a similar Ceiling with a guy that goes 15 picks later and just a few ticks behind T.Y. too. In a best ball league or DFS DT will have more relative value due to his cost compared to what he can produce.
So if I like the Ceiling and ADP of Demaryius Thomas, I love it for Emmanuel Sanders! I am actually a ton higher on Sanders just due to his ADP. His Floor was 3.3 points, 0.3 behind DT and is now only 0.2 points behind him in the Ceiling Rankings. Spending a pick in the 6th round (10 team league) compared to a 3rd round one for essentially the same expected 1 game Floor and Ceiling is incredible! Sanders was already on my watch list and I suggest you put him on yours as well.
As a risk averse drafter I am staying away from Sammy Watkins unless I can get him later than the 4th round, same thing with DeAndre Hopkins but the 4th round or late 3rd.
I would like to know more how you rank the Receivers outside the top 3, send me a tweet @qalled with your top 4-10.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD